Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T17:22:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

86
0x8660…3ee8
sports · 550 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$215 -14%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$208 · open −$7
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$37
Realized−$208
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses308 / 218
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions24
Markets (closed)526 / 550
History coverage59d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day11.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%
Chart Positions 24 History 526 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$4
14 days−$0
30 days−$73
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Yes 71¢ 76¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+7%)
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Yes 51¢ 38¢ $5 $3 −$1 (-25%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 82¢ 86¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+5%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 84¢ 62¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-27%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? No 89¢ 59¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-34%)
Ilkley: Celine Naef vs Akasha Urhobo Celine Naef 84¢ 100¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+19%)
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? No 87¢ 84¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Will Egypt win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 83¢ 84¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? No 79¢ 80¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
Will Ecuador win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 81¢ 78¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? No 79¢ 78¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? No 77¢ 76¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Stuttgart Open: Jiri Lehecka vs Frances Tiafoe Jiri Lehecka 80¢ 72¢ $2 $1 −$0 (-11%)
Modena: Nuria Brancaccio vs Lucia Bronzetti Lucia Bronzetti 80¢ 66¢ $2 $1 −$0 (-18%)
Tucuman: Carlos Maria Zarate vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi 83¢ 64¢ $2 $1 −$0 (-23%)
Ilkley: Filippo Romano vs Jack Pinnington Jones Jack Pinnington Jones 81¢ 60¢ $2 $1 −$0 (-27%)
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? No 76¢ 76¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Toronto Blue Jays win the 2026 American League Championship Series? No 90¢ 92¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Lyon: Felix Balshaw vs Clement Tabur Felix Balshaw 74¢ 73¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? No 20¢ 18¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-12%)
Will Russia enter Dopropillia by December 31, 2026? Yes 50¢ 32¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-35%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 26¢ 2¢ $2 $0 −$1 (-90%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 30¢ 4¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-88%)
Roland Garros WTA: Panna Udvardy vs Viktorija Golubic Panna Udvardy 40¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Aston Villa FC vs. Liverpool FC end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Amanda Anisimova Jun 12 $1 $0 +32%
Ilkley: Harmony Tan vs Lanlana Tararudee Jun 12 $2 $0 +23%
Cattolica: Raul Brancaccio vs Roberto Carballes Baena Jun 12 $1 +$1 +34%
Lyon: Daniel Galan vs Kimmer Coppejans Jun 12 $2 $0 +29%
Ilkley: Viktorija Golubic vs Katie Swan Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bratislava: Petr Brunclik vs Vitaliy Sachko Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
HSBC Championships: Harriet Dart vs Kamilla Rakhimova Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Ilkley: Henrique Rocha vs Darwin Blanch Jun 12 $2 $0 +20%
Stuttgart Open: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Alexander Bublik Jun 12 $2 $0 +24%
Libema Open: Benjamin Bonzi vs Alex de Minaur Jun 12 $2 +$1 +31%
Ilkley: Lulu Sun vs Mary Stoiana Jun 12 $2 $0 +23%
ITF Ceska Lipa: Julie Struplova vs Martha Matoula Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Tatjana Maria Jun 12 $2 $0 +20%
Modena: Dominika Salkova vs Katarzyna Kawa Jun 12 $2 $0 +26%
HSBC Championships: Marie Bouzkova vs Donna Vekic Jun 12 $2 $0 +26%
Libema Open: Zhizhen Zhang vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 12 $2 $0 +26%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Korea Republic leading at halftime? Jun 12 $2 +$1 +26%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $2 $0 +26%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $2 $0 +29%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5) Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $2 +$1 +23%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 12 $2 $0 +29%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $2 $0 +26%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $2 $0 +12%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $1 $0 +24%
Tucuman: Thiago Cigarran vs Juan Estevez Jun 11 $2 $0 +26%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 13.5 Jun 11 $2 +$1 +31%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 11 $2 $0 +26%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 9.5 Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Mexico (-2.5) Jun 11 $2 $0 +26%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 Jun 11 $1 $0 +27%
Modena: Lucia Bronzetti vs Julia Grabher Jun 11 $2 $0 +29%
Spread: New York Mets (-1.5) Jun 11 $1 $0 +21%
Stuttgart Open: Martin Landaluce vs Taylor Fritz Jun 11 $2 +$1 +36%
Tucuman: Eduardo Ribeiro vs Johan Alexander Rodriguez Jun 11 $2 $0 +29%
Libema Open: Panna Udvardy vs Daria Snigur Jun 11 $1 $0 +36%
Bolivia vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 Jun 11 $2 $0 +20%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 11 $2 $0 +29%
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 4.5 Jun 10 $2 $0 +26%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 4.5 Jun 10 $1 $0 +24%
Málaga CF vs. UD Las Palmas: O/U 3.5 Jun 10 $1 $0 +31%
Libema Open: Martin Damm vs Alex de Minaur Jun 10 $1 $0 +21%
Ilkley: Iryna Shymanovich vs Lanlana Tararudee Jun 10 $1 $0 +17%
Modena: Laura Samson vs Darja Semenistaja Jun 10 $2 $0 +20%
Ilkley: Taylah Preston vs Harmony Tan Jun 10 $2 +$1 +31%
Ilkley: Luca Nardi vs Jacob Fearnley Jun 10 $2 $0 +20%
Tucuman: Nicolas Villalon vs Lorenzo Joaquin Rodriguez Jun 10 $1 $0 +27%
Libema Open: Thijs Boogaard vs Yibing Wu Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 76% −$111
other 10% −$54
world 5% +$5
crypto 3% −$33
weather 3% −$9
finance 2% +$4
politics 1% −$15
tech 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Lyon: Felix Balshaw vs Clement Tabur BUY Felix Balshaw 74¢ $1 10m
Modena: Nuria Brancaccio vs Lucia Bronzetti BUY Lucia Bronzetti 80¢ $2 27m
Stuttgart Open: Jiri Lehecka vs Frances Tiafoe BUY Jiri Lehecka 80¢ $2 36m
Ilkley: Filippo Romano vs Jack Pinnington Jones BUY Jack Pinnington Jones 81¢ $2 48m
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Amanda Anisimova BUY Iva Jovic 75¢ $1 1h
Lyon: Daniel Galan vs Kimmer Coppejans BUY Daniel Galan 77¢ $2 1h
Cattolica: Raul Brancaccio vs Roberto Carballes Baena BUY Roberto Carballes Baena 74¢ $1 1h
Tucuman: Carlos Maria Zarate vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi BUY Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi 83¢ $2 1h
Ilkley: Celine Naef vs Akasha Urhobo BUY Celine Naef 84¢ $1 1h
Ilkley: Harmony Tan vs Lanlana Tararudee BUY Harmony Tan 81¢ $2 1h
Ilkley: Henrique Rocha vs Darwin Blanch BUY Darwin Blanch 83¢ $2 2h
Stuttgart Open: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Alexander Bublik BUY Alexander Bublik 80¢ $2 2h
Ilkley: Viktorija Golubic vs Katie Swan BUY Viktorija Golubic 79¢ $2 3h
Libema Open: Benjamin Bonzi vs Alex de Minaur BUY Alex de Minaur 76¢ $2 4h
HSBC Championships: Harriet Dart vs Kamilla Rakhimova BUY Harriet Dart 82¢ $2 4h
Bratislava: Petr Brunclik vs Vitaliy Sachko BUY Petr Brunclik 77¢ $2 5h
Modena: Dominika Salkova vs Katarzyna Kawa BUY Katarzyna Kawa 79¢ $2 5h
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Tatjana Maria BUY Elena Rybakina 83¢ $2 6h
Libema Open: Zhizhen Zhang vs Adrian Mannarino BUY Adrian Mannarino 79¢ $2 6h
HSBC Championships: Marie Bouzkova vs Donna Vekic BUY Donna Vekic 79¢ $2 6h
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 77¢ $2 14h
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 77¢ $2 14h
Korea Republic leading at halftime? BUY No 79¢ $2 14h
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5) BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 84¢ $2 15h
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 79¢ $2 16h
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Baltimore Orioles 77¢ $2 16h
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY No 76¢ $1 17h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 81¢ $2 17h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 79¢ $2 17h
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Texas Rangers 79¢ $2 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-16.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 100 +0.9% -8.8% 80% 80% -7.5%
≤30d 374 -2.1% -11.5% 63% 62% -14.2%
≤90d 526 -7.4% -16.3% 59% 57% -20.6%
all 526 -7.4% -16.3% 59% 57% -20.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover11.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.3% 57% -20.6%
10% -24.3% 47% -28.2%
15% -31.6% 25% -35.1%
20% -38.3% 20% -41.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37.16 · official $37.16 (match) · 1257 history records