Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T16:54:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
86 0x865d…a094 world 37 markets active 1h ago coverage 529d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$11 (+1%) realized +$11 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +49% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +35% what you keep after slip
Net edge+35%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate39%14W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$59per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$1
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 29% −$2
sports 27% −$12
world 25% −$3
politics 7% +$2
tech 7% $0
finance 5% +$26
crypto 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)+34.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +0.1% -9.4% 30% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 16 -0.2% -9.7% 25% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 26 +77.0% +60.2% 27% 4% -9.1%
all 36 +48.8% +34.7% 39% 8% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +34.7% 8% -9.6%
10% +21.8% 3% -18.2%
15% +10.0% 3% -26.1%
20% -0.8% 3% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 77% · top 2 83% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
79% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +49% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +98% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.52 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.52 per $1 lost it wins $1.52
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

529d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized+$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses14 / 22
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)36 / 37
History coverage529d
Avg bet$59
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? No 97¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 21 $36 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 21 $12 $0 -2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $36 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 19 $33 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $3 $0 +2%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $28 $0 -0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $33 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 15 $6 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 15 $27 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $67 +$1 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $33 −$1 -2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $74 −$2 -3%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 11 $35 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 09 $39 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $39 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $35 $0 +0%
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026? Apr 26 $130 −$2 -2%
Will Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) win the most seats in the 2026 Tam Apr 26 $141 +$1 +1%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 23 $142 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 1160-1199 tweets in April 2026? Apr 23 $142 −$1 -1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? Apr 22 $117 +$26 +22%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $81 −$1 -1%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $206 $0 -0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 15 $3 $0 +8%
Will Celta win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? Apr 14 $279 −$1 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 14 $274 $0 +0%
Will the New Orleans Saints win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 07 $2 $0 +1%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on July 31? Dec 07 $0 $0 -100%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the Eastern Conference? May 07 $2 $0 +1%
Will Kentucky win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? Mar 30 $1 $0 +1%
Northwestern State vs. Nicholls State Feb 11 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Ariana Grande win Best Supporting Actress in the 2025 Critics' Ch Feb 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Will MIBR win the VCT 2025 Americas Kickoff? Feb 08 $13 +$1 +8%
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during Fox News Oval Office inter Feb 02 $7 +$2 +20%
Will Trump appeal his hush money conviction? Jan 23 $12 $0 +3%
Raptors vs. Knicks Jan 09 $8 +$2 +20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $36 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $36 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $4 14h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $4 17h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $8 41h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $4 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $36 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $36 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 51¢ $33 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 51¢ $6 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 51¢ $27 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 5¢ $3 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $28 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $28 4d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 99¢ $1 5d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 99¢ $32 5d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 98¢ $33 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $5 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $2 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $6 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 52¢ $27 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 52¢ $27 6d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $33 6d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $32 6d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $31 7d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $32 7d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $36 7d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $36 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.80 · official $0.00 · 104 history records