Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T18:10:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

86 0x865d…b312 crypto 5 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL +$4 (+4%) realized +$4 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip

Net edge-10%after slip

Net WR0%break-even

Win rate100%4W / 0L

Drawdown0%max

Avg bet$20per market

Trades / day5.0pace

Kalshi-fit60%portable

Net worth$32now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-6.5%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	4	+3.4%	-6.5%	100%	0%	-5.0%
≤30d	4	+3.4%	-6.5%	100%	0%	-5.0%
≤90d	4	+3.4%	-6.5%	100%	0%	-5.0%
all	4	+3.4%	-6.5%	100%	0%	-5.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover5.0 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-6.5%	0%	-5.0%
10%	-15.4%	0%	-14.1%
15%	-23.6%	0%	-22.4%
20%	-31.1%	0%	-30.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 70% · top 2 97% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +5% too few recent

Fragile wins

100% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +3% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$1 vs — no data

Profit factor

— no data

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$32

Realized+$4

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)100%

Wins / losses4 / 0

Open positions1

Markets (closed)4 / 5

History coverage1d

Avg bet$20

Trades / day5.0

Drawdown0%

Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 4 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21?	Yes	100¢	100¢	$32	$32	+$0 (+0%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET	Jun 21	$5	$0	+1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET	Jun 21	$5	$0	+1%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$31	+$1	+3%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 21	$29	+$2	+8%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	100¢	$32	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET	BUY Up	99¢	$5	6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET	BUY Up	99¢	$5	6h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	97¢	$31	13h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	92¢	$29	24h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.02 · official $32.02 (match) · 10 history records