Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T14:41:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

86
0x865c…a2e1
crypto · 11 markets active 1h ago
6.0score
+$320 +10%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$335 · open −$15
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Net worth$437
Realized+$335
Unrealized−$15
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses8 / 2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)10 / 11
History coverage7d
Avg bet$288
Trades / day14.8
Drawdown1%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 1 History 10 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$247
7 days+$335
14 days+$335
30 days+$335
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 14? No 44¢ 42¢ $453 $437 −$15 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $601 +$181 +30%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 13? Jun 12 $389 +$66 +17%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 12? Jun 11 $10 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 12? Jun 11 $333 +$20 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $156 +$57 +37%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $94 −$4 -5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $172 +$5 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $141 +$10 +7%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $12 +$1 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $3 $0 -6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% +$320
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 14? BUY No 44¢ $471 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 14? SELL Yes 43¢ $350 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 14? SELL Yes 43¢ $1 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 14? SELL Yes 43¢ $7 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 14? SELL Yes 43¢ $3 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 14? SELL Yes 43¢ $1 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 14? SELL Yes 43¢ $1 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 14? SELL Yes 43¢ $1 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 14? SELL Yes 43¢ $4 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 14? SELL Yes 43¢ $1 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 14? SELL Yes 43¢ $4 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 14? SELL Yes 43¢ $4 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 14? SELL Yes 43¢ $4 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 14? SELL Yes 43¢ $4 6h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 14? SELL Yes 43¢ $1 6h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 14? SELL Yes 43¢ $4 6h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 14? SELL Yes 43¢ $4 6h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 14? SELL Yes 43¢ $1 6h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 14? SELL Yes 43¢ $4 6h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 14? SELL Yes 43¢ $4 6h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 14? SELL Yes 43¢ $33 6h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 14? SELL Yes 43¢ $35 6h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 14? BUY Yes 29¢ $21 11h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 14? BUY Yes 38¢ $394 12h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 13? SELL No 72¢ $414 12h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 14? SELL Yes 42¢ $0 12h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 13? BUY No 69¢ $405 12h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 14? SELL Yes 33¢ $404 13h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 14? BUY Yes 28¢ $20 15h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 14? BUY Yes 30¢ $324 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-0.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +9.6% -0.8% 80% 30% +6.3%
≤30d 10 +9.6% -0.8% 80% 30% +6.3%
≤90d 10 +9.6% -0.8% 80% 30% +6.3%
all 10 +9.6% -0.8% 80% 30% +6.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover14.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.8% 30% +6.3%
10% -10.3% 20% -3.8%
15% -19.0% 10% -13.1%
20% -26.9% 0% -21.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $437.35 · official $437.35 (match) · 105 history records