Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:05:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
86 0x8658…f20f other 10 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ bot/MM pace (306 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$11 (-1%) realized −$11 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$195per market
Trades / day306.0pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% −$121
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-17.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -8.4% -17.1% 0% 0% -15.2%
≤30d 9 -8.4% -17.1% 0% 0% -15.2%
≤90d 9 -8.4% -17.1% 0% 0% -15.2%
all 9 -8.4% -17.1% 0% 0% -15.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover306.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.1% 0% -15.2%
10% ← realistic here -25.0% 0% -23.3%
15% -32.3% 0% -30.7%
20% -38.9% 0% -37.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
15.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
— vs −$13 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 9
Open positions1
Markets (closed)9 / 10
History coverage1d
Avg bet$195
Trades / day306.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bukayo Saka be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 17 $171 −$10 -6%
Will Kai Havertz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $832 −$46 -6%
Will Amad Diallo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $277 −$17 -6%
Will Donyell Malen be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $259 −$16 -6%
Will Pedri be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $94 −$6 -6%
Will Romelu Lukaku be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $102 −$11 -11%
Will Sadio Mane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $134 −$8 -6%
Will Mohamed Salah be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $26 −$6 -22%
Will Antoine Semenyo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $33 −$3 -8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu SELL Yes 4¢ $27 1h
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY Yes 4¢ $29 1h
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu SELL Yes 4¢ $134 1h
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY Yes 4¢ $142 1h
Will Kai Havertz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $208 1h
Will Kai Havertz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $220 1h
Will Kai Havertz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $206 1h
Will Kai Havertz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $218 1h
Will Kai Havertz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $188 1h
Will Kai Havertz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $199 1h
Will Kai Havertz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $184 1h
Will Kai Havertz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $195 1h
Will Amad Diallo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $6 2h
Will Amad Diallo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $6 2h
Will Amad Diallo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $6 2h
Will Amad Diallo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $6 2h
Will Amad Diallo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $6 2h
Will Amad Diallo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $6 2h
Will Amad Diallo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $6 2h
Will Amad Diallo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $6 2h
Will Amad Diallo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $6 2h
Will Amad Diallo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $6 2h
Will Amad Diallo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $6 2h
Will Amad Diallo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $6 2h
Will Amad Diallo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $6 2h
Will Amad Diallo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $6 2h
Will Amad Diallo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $6 2h
Will Amad Diallo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $6 2h
Will Amad Diallo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $6 2h
Will Amad Diallo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $6 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.01 · official $0.01 (match) · 306 history records