Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T11:03:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
86 0x8656…f334 crypto 181 markets active 1h ago coverage 251d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$728 (+7%) realized +$728 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate63%114W / 67L
Drawdown85%max
Avg bet$57per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$44
7 days+$44
14 days+$44
30 days+$121
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 86% +$593
finance 8% +$153
politics 4% −$149
sports 1% −$15
culture 0% +$7
other 0% +$14
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)-7.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +0.2% -9.4% 67% 67% -4.8%
≤30d 24 +5.7% -4.3% 67% 67% -1.3%
≤90d 38 +4.9% -5.1% 66% 66% -7.7%
all 181 +2.6% -7.2% 63% 62% -4.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.2% 62% -4.2%
10% -16.1% 53% -13.4%
15% -24.2% 43% -21.8%
20% -31.6% 29% -29.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +42% → late -37% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$39 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.23 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

251d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$728
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses114 / 67
Open positions0
Markets (closed)181 / 181
History coverage251d
Avg bet$57
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown85%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 181 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 18 $22 −$21 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 18 $45 −$45 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 18 $69 −$32 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 18 $30 +$4 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 18 $26 +$6 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 18 $51 +$23 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 16 $141 +$35 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 16 $92 +$47 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 16 $113 −$64 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 16 $64 +$30 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 16 $134 +$15 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 16 $52 +$46 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET May 29 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET May 29 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET May 28 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET May 28 $10 +$16 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET May 28 $7 +$4 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET May 28 $48 −$48 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET May 22 $61 +$12 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET May 22 $61 +$29 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET May 22 $52 +$39 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET May 22 $72 +$30 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET May 22 $51 +$24 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET May 21 $52 +$51 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET May 18 $44 −$44 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET May 18 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET May 06 $62 +$53 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET May 06 $41 +$21 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET May 06 $31 +$11 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET May 03 $103 +$64 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET May 03 $62 +$60 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET May 03 $51 +$18 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET May 03 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Mar 22 $192 −$192 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Mar 22 $115 +$77 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Mar 22 $87 +$28 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Mar 22 $55 +$31 +57%
Will the Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) win the most seats in the 20 Mar 22 $229 −$173 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Mar 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Mar 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Mar 18 $57 −$57 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Mar 18 $57 −$57 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Mar 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Feb 16 $78 −$78 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Feb 16 $59 +$39 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Feb 16 $24 +$9 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Feb 16 $20 +$6 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Feb 16 $27 +$16 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Feb 13 $20 +$28 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Feb 13 $80 +$53 +66%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $22 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $45 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $39 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET SELL Down 26¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET SELL Down 78¢ $176 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $141 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $92 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $2 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $62 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $62 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET SELL Up 58¢ $49 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $52 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $82 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET SELL Down 35¢ $20 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET SELL Down 28¢ $12 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $52 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $52 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $5 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $52 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $26 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $10 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $7 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $3 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $2 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $5 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 479 history records