Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T16:48:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
86 0x8649…a77a sports 183 markets active 1h ago coverage 265d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$44 (+2%) realized +$54 · open −$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate65%105W / 56L
Drawdown88%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$71now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$6
14 days+$6
30 days+$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 64% +$12
crypto 20% +$3
other 14% +$11
world 1% +$10
economics 0% $0
tech 0% −$5
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 -6.8% -15.6% 41% 38% -5.8%
≤30d 38 -6.0% -15.0% 42% 39% -4.8%
≤90d 51 -9.5% -18.1% 45% 39% -9.6%
all 161 -2.4% -11.7% 65% 53% -8.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.7% 53% -8.1%
10% -20.2% 36% -16.9%
15% -27.9% 24% -24.9%
20% -35.0% 16% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$6 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.13 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

265d coverage
Net worth$71
Realized+$54
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses105 / 56
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions22
Markets (closed)161 / 183
History coverage265d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown88%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 22 History 161 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $14 $14 −$0 (-1%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $13 $13 −$0 (-1%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Yes 54¢ 54¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Spain 56¢ 24¢ $11 $5 −$6 (-56%)
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Under 55¢ 55¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 2 Uruguay? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 Egypt? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-4%)
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 1 New Zealand? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-5%)
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 0 New Zealand? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-6%)
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-12%)
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-16%)
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? Yes 13¢ 22¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+65%)
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Cabo Verde? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-25%)
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 1 Uruguay? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 1 New Zealand? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 0 Egypt? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 0 New Zealand? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 1 Egypt? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 2 Uruguay? Yes 12¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-13%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Yes 45¢ 16¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-63%)
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Spain 35¢ 10¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-70%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 50 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $3 +$2 +79%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 +$6 +57%
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 1 Türkiye? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 2 Türkiye? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 2 Türkiye? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 1 Türkiye? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 1 Scotland? Jun 14 $1 +$2 +215%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $4 +$2 +53%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 14 $8 +$4 +55%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $3 +$2 +58%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 2 Scotland? Jun 14 $1 $0 -5%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $6 +$2 +26%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $15 −$5 -31%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 1 Switzerland? Jun 13 $1 $0 +39%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +56%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $7 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Haiti 1 - 3 Scotland? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 3 Scotland? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Haiti 1 - 2 Scotland? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 3 Switzerland? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $3 −$3 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $8 +$9 +105%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $2 +$8 +510%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 12 $10 +$3 +34%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $7 +$5 +70%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: United States 0 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -98%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -98%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $6 −$6 -97%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $20 +$9 +44%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 21 $10 +$2 +21%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? May 11 $79 +$1 +1%
Thunder vs. Suns May 11 $8 +$2 +26%
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Apr 21 $7 −$7 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Apr 20 $10 +$4 +36%
Suns vs. Thunder Apr 11 $7 −$7 -100%
Thunder vs. Clippers Apr 09 $5 +$2 +42%
Thunder vs. Nuggets Apr 09 $5 −$5 -98%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? Apr 08 $10 +$20 +203%
Rockets vs. Thunder Apr 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Jazz vs. Thunder Apr 07 $10 +$1 +6%
Thunder vs. Celtics Mar 25 $6 −$6 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Mar 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 0 New Zealand? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 52m
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 1 New Zealand? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 52m
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 1 New Zealand? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 52m
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 0 New Zealand? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 53m
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $12 53m
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $2 53m
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 2 Uruguay? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 58m
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 2 Uruguay? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 58m
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 2 Uruguay? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 58m
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 1 Uruguay? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 58m
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $4 59m
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $13 59m
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 0 Egypt? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 1 Egypt? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 Egypt? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 1h
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $14 1h
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 45¢ $2 1h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 1h
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Spain 35¢ $2 1h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 56¢ $11 1h
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 1 Türkiye? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 36h
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 2 Türkiye? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 36h
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 2 Türkiye? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 36h
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 1 Türkiye? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 36h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $3 36h
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $2 36h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $10 36h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $70.72 · official $70.72 (match) · 400 history records