Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T02:22:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
86 0x8648…d32a crypto 86 markets active 1h ago coverage 11d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$36 (-14%) realized −$38 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate23%20W / 66L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day10.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 11d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$38
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-2.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 60 +23.1% +11.4% 22% 22% -12.5%
≤30d 86 +7.7% -2.5% 23% 23% -23.7%
≤90d 86 +7.7% -2.5% 23% 23% -23.7%
all 86 +7.7% -2.5% 23% 23% -23.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.5% 23% -23.7%
10% -11.9% 23% -31.0%
15% -20.4% 23% -37.7%
20% -28.2% 22% -43.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$3 · ×2.58 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$38
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses20 / 66
Open positions0
Markets (closed)86 / 86
History coverage11d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day10.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 86 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Down 5¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Down 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Up 31¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Up 11¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Up 4¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Down 4¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Up 30¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Down 15¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Down 3¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Up 33¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Down 7¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Down 11¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Down 11¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Down 48¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Down 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Down 15¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Up 23¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Down 44¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Down 2¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Up 8¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Up 16¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Down 29¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Down 11¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Up 3¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Up 20¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$4 +228%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$12 +374%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$10 +312%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$3 +252%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 14 $7 −$7 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$19 +1775%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$4 +374%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$6 +181%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 14 $7 −$7 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$4 +129%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $1 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $7 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET SELL Down 10¢ $1 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 150 history records