Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T01:32:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
86 0x8641…60f2 sports 15 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$55 (+13%) realized +$48 · open +$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +29% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -0% what you keep after slip
Net edge-0%after slip
Net WR75%break-even
Win rate75%9W / 3L
Drawdown30%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day35.0pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$126now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 85% +$104
other 15% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +75%
net ROI/market (all)+17.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +29.4% +17.1% 75% 75% +19.3%
≤30d 12 +29.4% +17.1% 75% 75% +19.3%
≤90d 12 +29.4% +17.1% 75% 75% +19.3%
all 12 +29.4% +17.1% 75% 75% +19.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover35.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +17.1% 75% +19.3%
10% ← realistic here +5.9% 67% +7.9%
15% -4.3% 58% -2.5%
20% -13.7% 42% -12.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 41% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +32% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +29% · $-wt +32% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +26% → late +33% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$16 · ×1.03 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×3.1 per $1 lost it wins $3.1
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$126
Realized+$48
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses9 / 3
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions3
Markets (closed)12 / 15
History coverage1d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day35.0
Drawdown30%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 2.5 Under 38¢ 42¢ $60 $66 +$6 (+9%)
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? Yes 37¢ 38¢ $44 $45 +$1 (+1%)
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 24¢ $15 $16 +$1 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $77 +$34 +44%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $31 −$31 -100%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $5 +$11 +246%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $37 +$27 +72%
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Jun 26 $31 +$10 +33%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $14 −$14 -100%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-2.5) Jun 25 $31 +$21 +69%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $31 +$23 +74%
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 25 $25 +$14 +57%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $15 +$6 +40%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $19 +$3 +18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $15 56m
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $15 57m
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 37¢ $14 57m
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 37¢ $31 1h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 45¢ $31 1h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 29¢ $16 1h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 66¢ $22 1h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 62¢ $42 1h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 29¢ $3 1h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 33¢ $3 1h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 36¢ $31 1h
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) SELL Netherlands 68¢ $41 1h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 28¢ $5 2h
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 39¢ $31 3h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 37¢ $31 3h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $3 3h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 52¢ $31 3h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $28 3h
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) BUY Netherlands 49¢ $31 3h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 3h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Under 100¢ $1 4h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? SELL Yes 47¢ $27 4h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? SELL Yes 35¢ $5 4h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? SELL Yes 34¢ $2 4h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? SELL Yes 32¢ $4 4h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Under 79¢ $20 4h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 24¢ $22 4h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 42¢ $14 7h
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-2.5) BUY Curaçao 58¢ $31 7h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 56¢ $31 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $125.92 · official $125.92 (match) · 42 history records