Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:40:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5

score

86 0x8641…4b20 tech 5 markets active 6d ago coverage 206d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$15 (-77%) realized −$15 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -78% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -80% what you keep after slip

Net edge-80%after slip

Net WR20%break-even

Win rate20%1W / 4L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$4per market

Trades / day0.0pace

Kalshi-fit80%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 206d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +20%

net ROI/market (all)-79.7%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	1	-100.0%	-100.0%	0%	0%	-100.0%
≤30d	1	-100.0%	-100.0%	0%	0%	-100.0%
≤90d	1	-100.0%	-100.0%	0%	0%	-100.0%
all	5	-77.5%	-79.7%	20%	20%	-80.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.0 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-79.7%	20%	-80.4%
10%	-81.6%	0%	-82.3%
15%	-83.4%	0%	-84.0%
20%	-85.0%	0%	-85.6%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -100% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -78% · $-wt -78% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$0 vs −$4 · ×0.12 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.03 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

206d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized−$15

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)20%

Wins / losses1 / 4

Open positions0

Markets (closed)5 / 5

History coverage206d

Avg bet$4

Trades / day0.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 5 Trades

no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will SpaceX’s “High” share price on its first day of trading hit 200 (	Jun 11	$5	−$5	-97%
Hyperliquid all time high by December 31?	Feb 14	$3	−$3	-100%
Will Ethereum hit $5,000 by December 31?	Feb 14	$5	−$5	-100%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb	Feb 14	$2	−$2	-100%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem	Feb 14	$4	$0	+12%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will SpaceX’s “High” share price on its first day of trading hit 200 (	BUY Yes	21¢	$5	6d
Hyperliquid all time high by December 31?	BUY Yes	2¢	$3	192d
Will Ethereum hit $5,000 by December 31?	BUY Yes	4¢	$5	195d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem	BUY Yes	89¢	$4	212d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb	BUY Yes	7¢	$2	212d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 9 history records