Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T22:16:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0

score

86 0x8641…cb25 sports 21 markets active 1h ago coverage 232d

TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$67 (-3%) realized −$24 · open −$43

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip

Net edge-4%after slip

Net WR53%break-even

Win rate53%10W / 9L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$111per market

Trades / day0.1pace

Fees−$22est.

Kalshi-fit67%portable

Net worth$7now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$179

7 days+$179

14 days+$240

30 days+$692

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +53%

net ROI/market (all)-4.1%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	1	+175.7%	+149.4%	100%	100%	+149.4%
≤30d	17	+18.3%	+7.0%	59%	59%	+33.0%
≤90d	18	+11.7%	+1.1%	56%	56%	+10.0%
all	19	+6.0%	-4.1%	53%	53%	-5.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.1 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-4.1%	53%	-5.4%
10%	-13.3%	53%	-14.5%
15%	-21.7%	47%	-22.7%
20%	-29.3%	42%	-30.3%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 28% · top 2 46% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +22% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +6% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +2% → late +9% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$95 vs −$107 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×1.11 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

232d coverage

Net worth$7

Realized−$24

Unrealized−$43

Win rate (resolved)53%

Wins / losses10 / 9

Est. fees paid−$22

Open positions1

Markets (closed)19 / 21

History coverage232d

Avg bet$111

Trades / day0.1

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 19 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Spread: Germany (-1.5)	Germany	48¢	6¢	$50	$7	−$43 (-86%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Germany vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5	Jun 29	$102	+$179	+176%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5	Jun 22	$102	$0	+0%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 0.5	Jun 21	$51	−$49	-97%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw?	Jun 20	$102	+$15	+15%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 19	$102	+$98	+97%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$101	−$100	-99%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5	Jun 18	$117	+$82	+70%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria?	Jun 17	$51	−$50	-97%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5	Jun 16	$101	+$65	+64%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw?	Jun 14	$51	−$22	-43%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw?	Jun 14	$51	−$37	-72%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 14	$202	+$115	+57%
Haiti vs. Scotland: 1st Half O/U 0.5	Jun 14	$304	+$262	+86%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Morocco?	Jun 14	$1	−$1	-97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 13	$51	+$47	+92%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw?	Jun 12	$41	+$45	+111%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?	Jun 11	$101	+$42	+42%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner	Apr 03	$309	−$309	-100%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner	Nov 09	$300	−$290	-97%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Germany vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5	SELL Over	100¢	$280	57m
Germany vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5	BUY Over	25¢	$51	1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5	BUY Over	62¢	$51	1h
Spread: Germany (-1.5)	BUY Germany	48¢	$51	1h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners AND Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals	BUY	12¢	$50	5h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	50¢	$102	7d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 0.5	SELL Over	21¢	$1	8d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 0.5	BUY Over	49¢	$51	8d
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw?	SELL Yes	46¢	$113	9d
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw?	BUY Yes	20¢	$102	9d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	50¢	$102	10d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	51¢	$101	11d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5	SELL Over	100¢	$200	11d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	58¢	$117	11d
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria?	BUY Yes	11¢	$51	12d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5	SELL Over	100¢	$166	12d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	60¢	$101	13d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw?	SELL Yes	19¢	$29	15d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw?	BUY Yes	32¢	$51	15d
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw?	SELL Yes	8¢	$14	15d
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw?	BUY Yes	27¢	$51	15d
Haiti vs. Scotland: 1st Half O/U 0.5	BUY Over	53¢	$304	15d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	63¢	$202	15d
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Morocco?	BUY No	8¢	$1	15d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	SELL Yes	92¢	$98	16d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	BUY Yes	47¢	$51	16d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw?	SELL Yes	61¢	$86	17d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw?	BUY Yes	28¢	$41	17d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?	SELL Yes	99¢	$143	18d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?	BUY Yes	69¢	$101	18d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.77 · official $10.94 · 38 history records