Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T13:22:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
86 0x863f…9e78 sports 76 markets active 2h ago coverage 564d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,082 (-40%) realized −$1,078 · open −$4
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate48%36W / 39L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$319now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$219
7 days−$578
14 days−$860
30 days−$872
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 61% −$830
sports 37% −$228
economics 1% −$9
politics 0% −$11
world 0% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-24.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -69.3% -72.2% 25% 25% -66.2%
≤30d 7 -82.5% -84.1% 14% 14% -74.4%
≤90d 14 -47.9% -52.8% 36% 36% -69.3%
all 75 -16.3% -24.3% 48% 47% -50.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.3% 47% -50.5%
10% -31.6% 44% -55.2%
15% -38.2% 43% -59.6%
20% -44.2% 35% -63.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -66% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -45% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -28% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$39 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.28 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

564d coverage
Net worth$319
Realized−$1,078
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses36 / 39
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)75 / 76
History coverage564d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 75 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? No 40¢ 40¢ $323 $319 −$4 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 23 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $223 −$219 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $281 +$64 +23%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $107 −$104 -97%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $321 −$320 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $202 −$197 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 10 $86 −$85 -99%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 02 $12 −$12 -99%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates May 17 $14 −$14 -99%
Will RC Strasbourg Alsace win on 2026-04-16? May 10 $7 +$5 +73%
Hawks vs. Heat Apr 16 $10 +$5 +52%
Lightning vs. Sabres Apr 06 $10 −$10 -100%
Penguins vs. Islanders Mar 30 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-03-26? Mar 30 $25 +$11 +45%
Will Pumas de la UNAM win on 2026-03-14? Mar 26 $32 +$12 +37%
Oilers vs. Golden Knights Mar 08 $60 −$60 -100%
Women's Final - USA vs. Canada Feb 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Misa Esports (BO3) - IstabuLAN Feb 19 $23 $0 -2%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs GamerLegion (BO2) - DreamLeague Stage 1 Group Feb 19 $37 +$14 +37%
Grizzlies vs. Pelicans Feb 12 $36 +$30 +82%
Pacers vs. 76ers Jan 30 $26 +$12 +45%
Maple Leafs vs. Golden Knights Jan 19 $24 +$19 +79%
Will Brentford win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 11 $47 −$24 -50%
Sabres vs. Kraken Jan 10 $11 +$10 +89%
Spurs vs. Lakers Dec 10 $31 −$31 -100%
Chiefs vs. Cowboys Nov 27 $20 −$20 -100%
Kings vs. Capitals Nov 17 $33 −$33 -100%
Jets vs. Kraken Nov 13 $30 −$30 -100%
Eagles vs. Packers Nov 13 $31 +$31 +100%
Celtics vs. Magic Nov 07 $24 −$24 -100%
Ravens vs. Dolphins Oct 30 $9 −$9 -100%
Heat vs. Magic Oct 22 $9 −$9 -100%
Capitals vs. Rangers Oct 22 $17 +$17 +96%
Knicks vs. 76ers Oct 04 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Everton vs. West Ham end in a draw? Sep 29 $16 −$16 -100%
Royals vs. Angels Sep 29 $11 +$9 +82%
Rice vs. Charlotte Sep 25 $13 +$11 +82%
Pirates vs. Orioles Sep 11 $14 −$14 -100%
Orioles vs. Padres Sep 11 $9 +$16 +170%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-08-31? Sep 03 $10 +$15 +144%
Nationals vs. Yankees Aug 31 $10 +$5 +47%
Astros vs. Tigers Aug 25 $11 +$9 +75%
Pirates vs. Brewers Aug 11 $6 −$6 -100%
Phillies vs. Rangers Aug 11 $12 +$8 +70%
Padres vs. Nationals Aug 10 $14 +$10 +72%
Pirates vs. Rockies Aug 02 $17 −$17 -100%
Pirates vs. Twins Jul 18 $9 +$6 +75%
Red Sox vs. Nationals Jul 12 $7 +$6 +96%
Padres vs. Reds Jul 05 $8 −$8 -100%
Phillies vs. Marlins Jul 05 $8 +$6 +75%
Angels vs. Orioles Jun 19 $9 +$6 +70%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 40¢ $329 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 29¢ $223 45h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 81¢ $281 2d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $107 3d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 83¢ $321 6d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 20¢ $202 7d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $86 9d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes BUY Hurricanes 60¢ $12 16d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 57¢ $14 33d
Will RC Strasbourg Alsace win on 2026-04-16? BUY Yes 57¢ $7 64d
Hawks vs. Heat BUY Heat 65¢ $10 67d
Lightning vs. Sabres BUY Lightning 53¢ $10 73d
Penguins vs. Islanders BUY Islanders 53¢ $19 80d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-03-26? BUY Yes 69¢ $25 85d
Will Pumas de la UNAM win on 2026-03-14? BUY No 73¢ $32 96d
Oilers vs. Golden Knights BUY Golden Knights 50¢ $60 102d
Women's Final - USA vs. Canada BUY Canada 21¢ $5 119d
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs GamerLegion (BO2) - DreamLeague Stage 1 Group BUY Natus Vincere 73¢ $37 121d
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Misa Esports (BO3) - IstabuLAN BUY Inner Circle Esports 51¢ $23 127d
Grizzlies vs. Pelicans BUY Pelicans 55¢ $36 140d
Pacers vs. 76ers BUY 76ers 69¢ $26 150d
Maple Leafs vs. Golden Knights BUY Golden Knights 56¢ $24 154d
Will Brentford win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL Yes $24 158d
Will Brentford win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY Yes $47 159d
Sabres vs. Kraken BUY Sabres 53¢ $11 186d
Spurs vs. Lakers BUY Lakers 72¢ $31 190d
Chiefs vs. Cowboys BUY Chiefs 63¢ $20 204d
Kings vs. Capitals BUY Kings 49¢ $33 213d
Jets vs. Kraken BUY Jets 57¢ $30 218d
Eagles vs. Packers BUY Eagles 50¢ $31 221d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $319.16 · official $319.16 (match) · 128 history records