Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T19:58:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

86
0x863f…5d94
crypto · 959 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$156 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$156 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$156
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses572 / 387
Open positions0
Markets (closed)959 / 959
History coverage11d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day306.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 0 History 959 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$46
14 days−$156
30 days−$156
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Down 53¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$2 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$2 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 12 $9 −$3 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 12 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$5 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 12 $20 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 12 $9 +$2 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 12 $10 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 12 $14 −$3 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$2 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 12 $8 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 12 $4 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 12 $9 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 12 $4 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 12 $12 +$3 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$2 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$2 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$2 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 12 $8 −$1 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 12 $13 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 12 $12 −$4 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 12 $14 +$3 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$3 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 12 $16 −$2 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 12 $25 −$6 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$2 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 12 $7 −$1 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 12 $15 +$3 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 12 $13 +$3 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 12 $9 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 12 $9 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 12 $19 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 12 $23 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 12 $21 −$2 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 12 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 12 $21 −$3 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 12 $11 −$1 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 12 $18 −$2 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 12 $6 +$2 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 12 $6 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 12 $6 −$1 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 12 $6 +$2 +40%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% −$156
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET SELL Down 61¢ $5 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $5 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET SELL Down 59¢ $7 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $5 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET SELL Up 96¢ $5 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $1 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $2 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET SELL Down 75¢ $2 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $2 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET SELL Down 83¢ $6 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $4 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET SELL Down 70¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET SELL Up 48¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET SELL Up 51¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET SELL Down 56¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET SELL Up 9¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET SELL Down 48¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET SELL Up 73¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET SELL Up 80¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET SELL Down 56¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET SELL Up 51¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 373 +0.4% -9.2% 55% 36% -10.9%
≤30d 959 +0.4% -9.1% 60% 37% -10.5%
≤90d 959 +0.4% -9.1% 60% 37% -10.5%
all 959 +0.4% -9.1% 60% 37% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover306.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.1% 37% -10.5%
10% ← realistic here -17.8% 17% -19.1%
15% -25.8% 7% -26.9%
20% -33.0% 3% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records