Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T20:52:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
86 0x863e…58b3 crypto 90 markets active 0h ago coverage 111d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialistFresh edge
Total PnL −$155 (-9%) realized −$99 · open −$56
Gross ROI / mkt +31% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +19% what you keep after slip
Net edge+19%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate49%43W / 45L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$232now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$71
7 days+$55
14 days+$158
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 73% −$368
crypto 15% −$22
sports 12% +$282
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)+18.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 +39.5% +26.2% 55% 55% -2.8%
≤30d 29 +88.2% +70.3% 52% 52% -9.3%
≤90d 63 +42.7% +29.1% 49% 49% -13.6%
all 88 +31.2% +18.7% 49% 49% -12.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +18.7% 49% -12.9%
10% +7.3% 48% -21.2%
15% -3.0% 47% -28.8%
20% -12.5% 39% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +31% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +60% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$16 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

111d coverage
Net worth$232
Realized−$99
Unrealized−$56
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses43 / 45
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions2
Markets (closed)88 / 90
History coverage111d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 88 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 42¢ 64¢ $81 $122 +$42 (+51%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $207 $110 −$98 (-47%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 30 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $30 +$5 +17%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $61 +$26 +43%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $40 +$63 +159%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $8 +$30 +365%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $41 −$40 -98%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $3 +$8 +257%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $30 +$34 +110%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 +$16 +157%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $51 +$25 +50%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $144 +$94 +65%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $135 −$133 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $20 +$15 +75%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $95 −$94 -99%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $12 +$21 +168%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$41 +402%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $66 +$28 +42%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $5 +$95 +1843%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $10 +$21 +203%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $160 −$156 -98%
Will FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC end in a draw? May 06 $5 +$18 +360%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $13 +$26 +203%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15? Apr 15 $50 −$49 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Apr 08 $12 −$12 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Apr 08 $10 −$9 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Apr 08 $15 +$7 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Apr 08 $12 +$3 +25%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 08 $13 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Apr 08 $13 −$13 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Apr 08 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Apr 08 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Apr 08 $13 −$8 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Apr 08 $3 −$2 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Apr 08 $2 +$2 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Apr 08 $5 +$5 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Apr 08 $1 +$2 +163%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Apr 08 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Apr 08 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Apr 08 $14 +$10 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Apr 08 $5 −$5 -91%
Will FC Barcelona vs. Club Atlético de Madrid end in a draw? Apr 08 $11 −$11 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 27¢ $35 14m
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 30¢ $35 34m
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $30 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $47 2h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes $5 9h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 37¢ $10 19h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes $5 20h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $87 22h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? SELL Yes 72¢ $102 23h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $40 24h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 69¢ $61 25h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 45h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $8 3d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $100 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 46¢ $41 4d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $3 4d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 30¢ $11 4d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes $3 4d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 39¢ $10 4d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 52¢ $20 4d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? SELL Yes 35¢ $26 4d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $76 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $51 4d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 4d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes $2 4d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes $5 4d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 4d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $113 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $238 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $232.24 · official $232.24 (match) · 202 history records