Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T16:10:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

86
0x863b…4f2c
other · 60 markets active 1d ago
5.0score
+$762 +5%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$2,016 · open −$1,254
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY Fresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1,387
Realized+$2,016
Unrealized−$1,254
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses24 / 34
Whale WR (big bets)43%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)58 / 60
History coverage68d
Avg bet$249
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown82%
Kalshi-fit2%
Chart Positions 2 History 58 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$1,159
14 days+$1,456
30 days+$744
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 35¢ 100¢ $481 $1,385 +$904 (+188%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 48¢ 0¢ $2,160 $2 −$2,158 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $197 $0 −$197 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $98 $0 −$98 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 6 to April 8, 2026? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 30 to May 2, 2026? Yes 17¢ 0¢ $272 $0 −$272 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Yes 43¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 20 to April 22, 2026? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from April 11 to April 13, 2026? Yes 66¢ 0¢ $54 $0 −$54 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Yes 32¢ 0¢ $731 $0 −$731 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 9 to April 11, 2026? Yes 27¢ 0¢ $23 $0 −$23 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? Yes 19¢ 0¢ $370 $0 −$370 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? Yes 46¢ 0¢ $567 $0 −$567 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 16 to April 18, 2026? Yes 17¢ 0¢ $174 $0 −$174 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? Yes 39¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Yes 16¢ 0¢ $416 $0 −$416 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Yes 30¢ 0¢ $678 $0 −$678 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 11 to April 13, 2026? Yes 37¢ 0¢ $29 $0 −$29 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 4 to April 6, 2026? Yes 38¢ 0¢ $55 $0 −$55 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Yes 25¢ 0¢ $308 $0 −$308 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 11 to April 13, 2026? Yes 52¢ 0¢ $46 $0 −$46 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Yes 27¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? Yes 39¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 10 $712 +$1,341 +188%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 10 $103 −$98 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 06 $433 −$416 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 06 $702 −$678 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $469 +$1,010 +215%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 03 $206 −$197 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 03 $434 −$418 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $366 +$825 +225%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 30 $236 −$227 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 30 $319 −$308 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 29 $1,009 +$621 +62%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026? May 27 $353 +$135 +38%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 27 $89 +$26 +29%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 26 $14 −$14 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $1,047 −$796 -76%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? May 25 $95 +$10 +10%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 25 $319 −$319 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 19 $202 +$322 +160%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 19 $74 −$8 -10%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 19 $117 +$4 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 19 $117 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 19 $152 −$113 -74%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026? May 18 $20 −$19 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026? May 18 $304 +$60 +20%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 20 to April 22, 2026? May 06 $42 +$25 +61%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 30 to May 2, 2026? May 01 $281 −$272 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Apr 30 $5 +$6 +110%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from April 11 to April 13, 2026? Apr 30 $21 +$125 +584%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? Apr 30 $385 −$370 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 25 to April 27, 2026? Apr 27 $136 +$86 +63%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 25 to April 27, 2026? Apr 27 $23 +$113 +500%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? Apr 24 $28 +$62 +221%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? Apr 23 $31 −$30 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? Apr 23 $10 −$9 -95%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 20 to April 22, 2026? Apr 21 $16 −$16 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 18 to April 20, 2026? Apr 21 $515 +$294 +57%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Apr 20 $757 −$731 -97%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 18 to April 20, 2026? Apr 19 $183 −$174 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 16 to April 18, 2026? Apr 18 $415 +$299 +72%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 16 to April 18, 2026? Apr 17 $181 −$174 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? Apr 14 $219 +$2,675 +1222%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? Apr 13 $583 −$567 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from April 11 to April 13, 2026? Apr 13 $55 −$54 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 11 to April 13, 2026? Apr 12 $29 −$29 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 11 to April 13, 2026? Apr 12 $47 −$46 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 9 to April 11, 2026? Apr 11 $59 +$29 +49%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? Apr 11 $5 −$4 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? Apr 11 $4 −$3 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? Apr 11 $2 −$2 -95%
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on April 12? Apr 11 $5 −$5 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 100% +$767
weather 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 54¢ $116 35h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 54¢ $1 35h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 54¢ $1,186 35h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 54¢ $1 35h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 35¢ $80 35h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 54¢ $11 35h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 54¢ $16 35h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 54¢ $1 35h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 54¢ $454 35h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 54¢ $2 35h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 34¢ $1 2d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 34¢ $2 2d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 34¢ $4 2d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 34¢ $8 2d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 34¢ $27 2d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 38¢ $175 2d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 35¢ $155 2d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 36¢ $39 2d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $96 2d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $103 2d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 34¢ $182 2d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $124 2d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 5d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 30¢ $4 5d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 34¢ $4 5d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $147 5d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 30¢ $225 5d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 34¢ $262 5d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 30¢ $159 5d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $110 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)+58.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +20.7% +9.2% 40% 40% +34.6%
≤30d 24 +75.6% +58.9% 46% 42% +0.9%
≤90d 58 +75.6% +58.9% 41% 40% +6.1%
all 58 +75.6% +58.9% 41% 40% +6.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +58.9% 40% +6.1%
10% +43.7% 38% -4.0%
15% +29.8% 36% -13.3%
20% +17.1% 33% -21.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,386.89 · official $1,355.03 · 237 history records