Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T02:20:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
86 0x863a…e428 other 103 markets active 1h ago coverage 614d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$435 (-3%) realized −$417 · open −$18
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate43%42W / 55L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$150per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$270now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$50
7 days−$223
14 days−$285
30 days−$259
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 56% −$123
politics 17% +$63
crypto 9% −$299
world 5% −$43
weather 4% −$36
tech 3% −$23
sports 3% −$69
economics 2% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-19.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -26.4% -33.4% 30% 13% -20.7%
≤30d 44 -4.1% -13.3% 32% 16% -14.1%
≤90d 50 -9.7% -18.3% 32% 14% -13.3%
all 97 -10.6% -19.1% 43% 16% -12.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.1% 16% -12.5%
10% -26.8% 10% -20.9%
15% -33.9% 7% -28.5%
20% -40.4% 7% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
62% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -13% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$21 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

614d coverage
Net worth$270
Realized−$417
Unrealized−$18
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses42 / 55
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions6
Markets (closed)97 / 103
History coverage614d
Avg bet$150
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 97 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Deniz Undav be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 97¢ 96¢ $170 $170 −$0 (-0%)
Will Sui reach $2.00 before 2027? No 91¢ 50¢ $48 $27 −$22 (-45%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 20¢ $20 $25 +$5 (+23%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $20 $16 −$4 (-19%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 12¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $21 −$21 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 22? Jun 22 $242 −$9 -4%
Will Kai Havertz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $401 +$6 +1%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $27 −$26 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 20? Jun 20 $13 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 20? Jun 20 $45 −$1 -3%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 20 $15 −$15 -97%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $31 −$30 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 18? Jun 18 $36 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 18? Jun 18 $155 −$22 -14%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 18? Jun 18 $5 $0 -2%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $31 +$78 +255%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $200 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on June 17? Jun 17 $13 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $181 −$4 -2%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $31 −$28 -92%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $1 $0 +14%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? Jun 15 $216 −$98 -45%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $30 +$26 +85%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $32 +$108 +341%
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $81 −$2 -3%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? Jun 14 $232 −$79 -34%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $30 +$10 +32%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $67 +$3 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 13 $142 −$49 -35%
Counter-Strike: RUSTEC vs HEROIC Academy (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Jun 13 $50 −$10 -20%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 13 $222 +$4 +2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 13 $82 −$1 -1%
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $50 −$5 -11%
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $50 −$2 -3%
Will Hyperliquid reach $80 by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $307 −$42 -14%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $4 +$6 +158%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $500 $0 -0%
Predict.fun FDV above $100M one day after launch? Jun 11 $50 −$1 -2%
Variational FDV above $300M one day after launch? Jun 09 $60 −$3 -5%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $401 $0 +0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $301 −$2 -1%
Will OpenAI have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? May 30 $200 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin all time high by September 30, 2026? May 28 $201 −$6 -3%
Solstice FDV above $300M one day after launch? May 26 $202 +$35 +18%
Variational FDV above $800M one day after launch? May 15 $413 −$66 -16%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? May 02 $600 +$59 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on April 10? Apr 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Apr 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Opensea FDV above $1B one day after launch? Apr 09 $522 +$19 +4%
Backpack FDV above $500M one day after launch? Mar 29 $20 −$20 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Deniz Undav be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $170 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 22? SELL No 73¢ $88 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 22? SELL No 70¢ $31 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 22? BUY No 71¢ $36 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 22? BUY No 72¢ $36 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 22? SELL No 74¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 22? SELL No 74¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 22? SELL No 74¢ $30 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 22? SELL No 74¢ $7 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 22? SELL No 74¢ $22 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 22? SELL No 74¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 22? SELL No 71¢ $40 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 22? BUY No 76¢ $38 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 22? BUY No 76¢ $38 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 22? BUY No 77¢ $30 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 22? BUY No 78¢ $39 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 22? BUY No 78¢ $25 2h
Will Kai Havertz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $205 2h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 2h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 10¢ $15 2h
Will Kai Havertz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 95¢ $200 45h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 45h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 46h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 46h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 20? SELL No 72¢ $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 20? SELL No 72¢ $7 2d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 20? SELL No 63¢ $43 2d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 20? SELL No 72¢ $6 2d
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 2d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 20? BUY No 63¢ $13 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $270.14 · official $270.14 (match) · 474 history records