trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 1 | +0.6% | -9.0% | 100% | 0% | -9.0% |
| ≤30d | 9 | +1.0% | -8.6% | 44% | 0% | -8.9% |
| ≤90d | 11 | +0.8% | -8.8% | 36% | 0% | -9.0% |
| all | 29 | -2.2% | -11.5% | 48% | 0% | -9.2% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -11.5% | 0% | -9.2% |
| 10% | -20.0% | 0% | -17.9% |
| 15% | -27.7% | 0% | -25.9% |
| 20% | -34.8% | 0% | -33.1% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? | No | 88¢ | 89¢ | $41 | $42 | +$0 (+1%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US strike on Cuba by December 31? | Jun 18 | $142 | +$1 | +1% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | May 27 | $7 | $0 | -4% |
| Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? | May 25 | $46 | $0 | +0% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | May 24 | $76 | $0 | -0% |
| Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? | May 23 | $14 | $0 | +0% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? | May 23 | $30 | +$1 | +3% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | May 21 | $43 | +$1 | +1% |
| Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | May 21 | $39 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? | May 20 | $13 | +$1 | +9% |
| Iran closes its airspace by May 31? | May 18 | $43 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab | May 18 | $38 | $0 | -0% |
| Will US GDP growth in Q2 2025 be between 1% and 0%? | Dec 13 | $2 | $0 | +3% |
| Will McLaren be the 2025 Constructors Champion? | Jun 27 | $11 | $0 | -1% |
| Will The Fantastic Four: First Steps be the top grossing movie of 2025 | Jun 07 | $1 | $0 | +4% |
| Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 National League Championship | Jun 07 | $10 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Donald Trump be the first leader out in 2025? | Jun 06 | $10 | −$1 | -8% |
| Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 National League Championship? | Jun 05 | $10 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Han Dong-hoon be elected the next president of South Korea? | Jun 04 | $10 | $0 | +3% |
| Will Solana dip to $80 in May? | Jun 02 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? | Apr 25 | $1 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Trump acquire Greenland before July? | Apr 17 | $10 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? | Apr 16 | $11 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Nikita Kucherov win the Hart Trophy? | Apr 16 | $12 | −$1 | -7% |
| Bitcoin above $84,000 on March 28? | Mar 29 | $13 | $0 | +3% |
| 500+ Measles cases in U.S. before April? | Mar 27 | $13 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Trump's approval rating be between 46.0% and 46.4% on March 28? | Mar 25 | $12 | $0 | +4% |
| Wofford vs. Tennessee | Mar 20 | $12 | $0 | +1% |
| Israel x Hamas ceasefire by Friday? | Mar 19 | $1 | −$1 | -80% |
| Will 'Novocaine' gross more than 11m on opening weekend? | Mar 18 | $13 | $0 | +1% |