Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T14:43:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

86
0x8638…b43b
sports · 6 markets active 2h ago
3.5score
+$3 +3%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$5 · open −$2
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$79
Realized+$5
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses2 / 1
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)3 / 6
History coverage1d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day6.0
Drawdown42%
Kalshi-fit67%
Chart Positions 3 History 3 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days+$5
14 days+$5
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 0.5 Over 83¢ 82¢ $61 $60 −$1 (-1%)
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 1.5 Over 20¢ 19¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-5%)
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 4.5 Over 20¢ 18¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-8%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Yes 54¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $6 +$6 +109%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 13.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $5 +$1 +11%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 92% −$1
other 8% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 0.5 BUY Over 83¢ $61 1h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 1.5 BUY Over 20¢ $10 1h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 20¢ $10 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $6 14h
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 13.5 Total Corners BUY Under 90¢ $5 21h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $2 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)-3.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +6.7% -3.4% 67% 67% +24.6%
≤30d 3 +6.7% -3.4% 67% 67% +24.6%
≤90d 3 +6.7% -3.4% 67% 67% +24.6%
all 3 +6.7% -3.4% 67% 67% +24.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover6.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.4% 67% +24.6%
10% -12.7% 33% +12.7%
15% -21.1% 33% +1.8%
20% -28.8% 33% -8.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $78.94 · official $78.94 (match) · 8 history records