Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T10:48:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
86 0x8637…069f other 18 markets active 2h ago coverage 284d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$240 (-19%) realized −$233 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate46%6W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$72per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$173now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 284d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 69% −$305
sports 15% +$121
politics 9% −$115
tech 8% +$45
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-32.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -25.7% -32.8% 46% 46% -29.9%
≤30d 13 -25.7% -32.8% 46% 46% -29.9%
≤90d 13 -25.7% -32.8% 46% 46% -29.9%
all 13 -25.7% -32.8% 46% 46% -29.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.8% 46% -29.9%
10% -39.2% 46% -36.6%
15% -45.1% 38% -42.7%
20% -50.5% 23% -48.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 63% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -26% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -73% → late +15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$49 vs −$78 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

284d coverage
Net worth$173
Realized−$233
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses6 / 7
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions5
Markets (closed)13 / 18
History coverage284d
Avg bet$72
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Yes 60¢ 60¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Japan reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 32¢ 30¢ $50 $47 −$3 (-6%)
Will Australia reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 46¢ 42¢ $50 $46 −$4 (-8%)
Will Morocco reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 27¢ 28¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+2%)
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $5 $4 −$0 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 28 $32 −$32 -100%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 28 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? Jun 28 $35 +$14 +40%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 28 $35 +$30 +86%
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 28 $106 +$103 +97%
Will the Reserve Bank of Australia increase the target for the cash ra Jun 23 $168 −$168 -100%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 23 $32 +$20 +64%
TikTok sale announced in 2025? Jun 23 $100 +$45 +45%
Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand make no change to the official ca Jun 23 $250 +$84 +34%
Will Donald Trump visit China in 2025? Jun 23 $115 −$115 -100%
Will the Reserve Bank of Australia make no change to the target for th Jun 23 $93 −$93 -100%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-09-17? Jun 23 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-09-20? Jun 23 $100 −$100 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 27¢ $27 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 60¢ $53 1h
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 1h
Will Australia reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 46¢ $53 9h
Will Japan reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 32¢ $53 9h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 48¢ $106 9h
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? BUY Yes 68¢ $35 9h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 51¢ $35 4d
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $16 4d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 59¢ $32 4d
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 58¢ $32 5d
Will the Reserve Bank of Australia increase the target for the cash ra BUY No 6¢ $18 55d
Will the Reserve Bank of Australia make no change to the target for th BUY Yes 18¢ $16 60d
Will the Reserve Bank of Australia increase the target for the cash ra BUY No 20¢ $62 60d
Will the Reserve Bank of Australia increase the target for the cash ra BUY No 35¢ $88 70d
Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand make no change to the official ca BUY Yes 75¢ $250 70d
Will the Reserve Bank of Australia make no change to the target for th BUY Yes 39¢ $77 70d
Will Chelsea win on 2025-09-20? BUY Yes 40¢ $100 281d
Will Chelsea win on 2025-09-17? BUY Yes 22¢ $20 283d
TikTok sale announced in 2025? BUY Yes 69¢ $100 283d
Will Donald Trump visit China in 2025? BUY Yes 54¢ $115 283d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $172.90 · official $172.90 (match) · 34 history records