Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T11:50:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
86 0x8637…0c86 sports 244 markets active 1h ago coverage 43d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$2,553 (+12%) realized +$2,601 · open −$48
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate55%130W / 106L
Drawdown45%max
Avg bet$89per market
Trades / day7.8pace
Fees−$272est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$674now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$740
7 days+$1,254
14 days+$1,721
30 days+$2,564
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 91% +$2,428
other 4% −$11
world 2% −$33
crypto 2% −$72
tech 0% +$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 +7.3% -2.9% 56% 48% +12.2%
≤30d 178 +0.9% -8.7% 56% 52% +3.3%
≤90d 236 -1.7% -11.1% 55% 51% +1.0%
all 236 -1.7% -11.1% 55% 51% +1.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.1% 51% +1.0%
10% -19.6% 47% -8.6%
15% -27.3% 43% -17.5%
20% -34.5% 34% -25.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +12% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$69 vs −$62 · ×1.11 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.36 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

43d coverage
Net worth$674
Realized+$2,601
Unrealized−$48
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses130 / 106
Est. fees paid−$272
Open positions7
Markets (closed)236 / 244
History coverage43d
Avg bet$89
Trades / day7.8
Drawdown45%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 236 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Spain 56¢ 56¢ $200 $202 +$2 (+1%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Yes 97¢ 97¢ $200 $199 −$1 (-0%)
Will Gen.G Esports win the LCK 2026 season playoffs? Yes 45¢ 40¢ $115 $101 −$14 (-12%)
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 41¢ 40¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 14¢ 12¢ $57 $50 −$7 (-13%)
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? Yes 56¢ 69¢ $11 $13 +$3 (+24%)
Will Marta Kostyuk be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Yes 9¢ 2¢ $40 $10 −$30 (-75%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 79 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Game Handicap: KT.C (-1.5) vs Saigon Warriors (+1.5) Jun 15 $51 +$28 +55%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $200 −$43 -22%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $100 +$2 +2%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $153 +$285 +186%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $200 +$12 +6%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $203 +$183 +90%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $51 −$50 -99%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London Jun 14 $303 +$141 +46%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $398 −$390 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $1,012 +$608 +60%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $153 −$150 -98%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $304 +$254 +84%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Jun 13 $301 −$300 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $353 +$120 +34%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $304 +$251 +83%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $110 −$109 -99%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $202 +$99 +49%
Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs T1 (+1.5) Jun 13 $203 −$200 -98%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $203 +$664 +327%
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs KT Rolster (+2.5) Jun 13 $101 −$100 -99%
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs LOUD - Game 2 Winner Jun 10 $148 −$73 -49%
Game Handicap: SGW (-1.5) vs Saigon Dino (+1.5) Jun 10 $51 −$3 -7%
Game Handicap: DK.C (-1.5) vs Top Esports Challenger (+1.5) Jun 09 $50 +$15 +31%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $51 −$50 -98%
Game Handicap: BLG (-1.5) vs Anyone's Legend (+1.5) Jun 08 $101 +$60 +60%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 07 $101 +$66 +65%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Jun 04 $10 +$1 +9%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex - Game 2 Winner Jun 04 $28 −$28 -98%
Game Handicap: AL (-2.5) vs LGD Gaming (+2.5) Jun 04 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $101 −$100 -99%
Game Handicap: BLG (-2.5) vs EDward Gaming (+2.5) Jun 03 $51 +$36 +70%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 03 $51 +$36 +70%
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 03 $101 −$100 -99%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Los Angeles Sparks: O/U 175.5 Jun 03 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Marta Kostyuk win the 2026 Women’s French Open? Jun 02 $20 −$20 -98%
Dota 2: Pipsqueak+4 vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner Jun 02 $101 +$77 +76%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs Liquid (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $41 +$34 +83%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - Esports World Cup Western Jun 02 $202 +$118 +59%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 02 $203 +$205 +101%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner Jun 02 $101 −$100 -99%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 02 $102 +$34 +33%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars Academy vs KaBuM! Ilha das Lendas - Game 4 Winner Jun 02 $47 +$47 +101%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars Academy vs KaBuM! Ilha das Lendas (BO5) - Circuit Jun 02 $50 +$62 +124%
Game Handicap: KC (-1.5) vs GIANTX (+1.5) Jun 01 $126 +$63 +50%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs GIANTX - Game 3 Winner Jun 01 $101 +$46 +46%
Game Handicap: AL (-2.5) vs Team WE (+2.5) Jun 01 $101 +$60 +60%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 01 $101 −$100 -99%
LoL: Team Vitality vs GIANTX (BO5) - LEC Playoffs May 31 $402 −$74 -18%
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Joao Fonseca May 31 $63 −$62 -99%
LoL: Team Vitality vs GIANTX - Game 3 Winner May 31 $101 −$17 -17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 14¢ $29 1h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 56¢ $203 1h
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 41¢ $102 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 97¢ $200 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 6¢ $157 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 14¢ $28 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 8¢ $200 1h
Will Gen.G Esports win the LCK 2026 season playoffs? BUY Yes 44¢ $51 4h
Game Handicap: KT.C (-1.5) vs Saigon Warriors (+1.5) BUY KT Rolster Challengers 64¢ $51 8h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 98¢ $100 8h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 56¢ $51 17h
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY FUT Esports 34¢ $153 17h
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 94¢ $200 17h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 48¢ $102 19h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 57¢ $101 19h
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics - Map 2 Winner BUY Leviatán Esports 18¢ $92 20h
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London BUY Leviatán Esports 68¢ $303 20h
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics - Map 2 Winner BUY Leviatán Esports 42¢ $305 20h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY 56¢ $101 26h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner SELL T1 99¢ $1,619 26h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 34¢ $153 26h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 61¢ $1,012 26h
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs BUY G2 Esports 93¢ $301 41h
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 1 Winner BUY G2 Esports 54¢ $304 42h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY FUT Esports 24¢ $9 44h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY FUT Esports 63¢ $101 44h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Aurora Gaming 74¢ $353 46h
Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs T1 (+1.5) BUY Gen.G 47¢ $203 46h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 54¢ $304 46h
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 66¢ $202 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $674.30 · official $674.34 (match) · 457 history records