Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T22:25:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
86 0x8637…e37a world 32 markets active 1h ago coverage 472d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$10 (-1%) realized −$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate53%17W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 80% $0
other 7% +$1
politics 7% −$11
crypto 3% $0
sports 2% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.1% -9.4% 33% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 25% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 15 +2.7% -7.1% 33% 13% -9.5%
all 32 -1.5% -10.9% 53% 6% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.9% 6% -10.9%
10% -19.4% 3% -19.4%
15% -27.2% 3% -27.2%
20% -34.3% 0% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 62% · top 2 70% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.48 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

472d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses17 / 15
Open positions0
Markets (closed)32 / 32
History coverage472d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 32 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 25 $122 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $29 $0 -0%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 22 $29 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 27 $33 $0 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 25 $59 $0 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 25 $11 −$1 -12%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 24 $27 −$1 -3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 24 $31 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 24 $31 $0 -1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 23 $26 +$6 +22%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 23 $30 −$4 -14%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 21 $33 $0 +0%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 20 $33 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 20 $30 $0 +1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 19 $30 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? Dec 15 $2 $0 +3%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York Dec 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Lee Jae-myung win less than 35% of the vote in the South Korea el Jun 06 $1 $0 +2%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after May 2025 meeting? May 08 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Giants draft Shedeur Sanders? Apr 18 $13 +$1 +6%
Will Tulsi Gabbard be out as Director of National Intelligence in Trum Apr 07 $12 $0 +1%
Will the AFD be part of the next German government? Apr 05 $1 $0 -6%
Will the next UK election be called by June 30? Apr 05 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Apr 04 $12 $0 -0%
Mike Huckabee confirmed as ambassador to Israel? Apr 02 $13 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 525-549 times March 21-28? Mar 29 $13 $0 +4%
Will Elon tweet less than 300 times March 21-28? Mar 26 $10 $0 +0%
Will 8+ Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Mar 23 $2 $0 -1%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 20 $12 $0 +0%
Will Trump's approval rating be between 47.0% and 47.4% on March 14? Mar 16 $11 +$1 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $85000 and $87000 on Mar 14? Mar 12 $12 $0 -4%
Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb Mar 4-10? Mar 12 $12 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $32 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $32 3h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $32 29h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $32 30h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $29 40h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $29 44h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $10 47h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $19 47h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $29 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $8 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $20 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $29 2d
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 52¢ $29 2d
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 52¢ $29 3d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 92¢ $29 29d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 92¢ $18 30d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 91¢ $11 30d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL No 97¢ $16 31d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL No 97¢ $7 31d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL No 97¢ $6 31d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY No 96¢ $21 31d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY No 96¢ $8 31d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 29¢ $10 31d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 33¢ $11 31d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 37¢ $26 32d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 38¢ $27 32d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 56¢ $31 32d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 56¢ $1 32d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 56¢ $31 32d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL No 89¢ $14 32d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.79 · official $0.00 (match) · 91 history records