Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T18:27:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
86 0x8636…f61a crypto 143 markets active 2h ago coverage 120d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$775 (-3%) realized −$775 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate55%78W / 65L
Whale WR56%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$169per market
Trades / day3.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$434
7 days+$406
14 days+$406
30 days+$406
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$567
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-16.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +21.7% +10.1% 75% 62% +9.9%
≤30d 8 +21.7% +10.1% 75% 62% +9.9%
≤90d 49 -15.3% -23.3% 55% 41% -16.6%
all 143 -8.2% -16.9% 55% 45% -11.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.9% 45% -11.4%
10% -24.9% 35% -19.9%
15% -32.1% 24% -27.6%
20% -38.8% 15% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 56% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late -17% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$59 vs −$80 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

120d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$775
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses78 / 65
Whale WR (big bets)56%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)143 / 143
History coverage120d
Avg bet$169
Trades / day3.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 143 Trades
no open positions (27 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 27 $130 +$142 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 27 $230 −$84 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 27 $183 +$55 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 27 $784 +$23 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 27 $224 +$35 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 27 $201 +$219 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 27 $111 +$44 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 25 $62 −$28 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET May 14 $47 −$46 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET May 14 $25 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET May 14 $67 +$17 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET May 14 $14 +$14 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET May 14 $98 −$94 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET May 14 $106 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET May 14 $26 −$23 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET May 14 $141 −$115 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET May 08 $15 −$14 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET May 08 $9 +$6 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET May 08 $22 −$13 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET May 08 $11 −$4 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Apr 23 $15 −$8 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Apr 23 $30 −$11 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Apr 23 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Apr 16 $234 −$231 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Apr 16 $318 +$75 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Apr 16 $159 −$122 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Apr 16 $164 +$122 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Apr 16 $115 +$49 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Apr 16 $401 +$4 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Apr 16 $692 −$560 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Apr 16 $165 −$93 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Apr 16 $229 +$70 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Apr 16 $454 +$272 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Apr 16 $465 −$442 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Apr 16 $55 −$45 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Apr 16 $467 +$44 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Apr 16 $290 −$247 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Apr 16 $251 +$98 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Apr 16 $552 +$144 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Apr 16 $169 +$47 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Apr 15 $110 −$78 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Apr 15 $232 +$19 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Apr 15 $119 +$113 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Apr 15 $65 +$27 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Apr 15 $179 −$19 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Apr 14 $10 −$9 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Apr 14 $153 −$141 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Apr 14 $126 +$24 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Apr 14 $98 +$29 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Mar 14 $48 −$38 -79%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $130 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET SELL Up 56¢ $52 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $128 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET SELL Up 73¢ $94 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $102 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $225 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $167 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET SELL Up 30¢ $13 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $16 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $228 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET SELL Down 81¢ $191 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $405 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET SELL Down 75¢ $139 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $152 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET SELL Up 9¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $101 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $102 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $201 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $111 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $30 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET SELL Up 33¢ $30 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $32 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $47 44d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $25 44d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET SELL Down 15¢ $17 44d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET SELL Down 14¢ $28 44d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $39 44d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET SELL Up 46¢ $39 44d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $28 44d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 458 history records