Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T16:05:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
86 0x8636…81d8 sports 53 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d
BOTnot copyable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (61 trades/day) — uncopyable
Total PnL +$798 (+29%) realized +$817 · open −$19
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +90% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +46% what you keep after slip
Net edge+46%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate45%17W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$53per market
Trades / day60.9pace
Fees−$19est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$235now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% −$198
sports 37% +$1,099
politics 7% −$9
tech 6% −$15
world 6% −$103
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (61 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)+71.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 +89.6% +71.6% 45% 42% +18.3%
≤30d 38 +89.6% +71.6% 45% 42% +18.3%
≤90d 38 +89.6% +71.6% 45% 42% +18.3%
all 38 +89.6% +71.6% 45% 42% +18.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover60.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +71.6% 42% +18.3%
10% ← realistic here +55.1% 37% +7.0%
15% +40.2% 29% -3.4%
20% +26.4% 29% -12.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +34% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +90% · $-wt +34% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -26% → late +205% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$126 vs −$64 · ×1.96 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.59 per $1 lost it wins $1.59
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$235
Realized+$817
Unrealized−$19
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses17 / 21
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions15
Markets (closed)38 / 53
History coverage4d
Avg bet$53
Trades / day60.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 13¢ $86 $84 −$2 (-2%)
Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026? Yes 60¢ 63¢ $33 $34 +$2 (+5%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? No 57¢ 56¢ $29 $29 −$1 (-2%)
Will GPT-6 be released by July 31, 2026? No 95¢ 95¢ $23 $23 +$0 (+0%)
Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 74¢ 74¢ $18 $18 −$0 (-1%)
Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 88¢ 82¢ $17 $16 −$1 (-7%)
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? Yes 67¢ 37¢ $27 $15 −$12 (-45%)
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 14¢ 8¢ $7 $4 −$3 (-42%)
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-30%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? Yes 14¢ 8¢ $4 $2 −$1 (-39%)
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? No 54¢ 50¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-7%)
Will OpenAI have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 15¢ 16¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+10%)
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+33%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+6%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? No 91¢ 93¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? Jun 22 $80 +$16 +20%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 22 $10 +$12 +121%
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? Jun 22 $21 −$4 -19%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $101 −$101 -100%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $41 +$46 +114%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $102 +$210 +206%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $101 +$29 +29%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $61 +$173 +281%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $103 −$103 -100%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $102 +$329 +321%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 21 $101 −$10 -9%
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Jun 21 $99 $0 +0%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $102 −$102 -100%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 21 $15 +$4 +24%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? Jun 21 $6 −$1 -17%
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 21 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $62 +$484 +785%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $21 +$480 +2334%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $20 +$91 +442%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $61 +$36 +60%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $41 +$209 +510%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 21 $12 −$4 -30%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $103 −$103 -100%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $101 −$101 -100%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 20 $51 −$51 -100%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $102 −$102 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $77 −$77 -100%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? Jun 19 $7 +$1 +13%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $39 −$39 -100%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $2 +$3 +226%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $61 +$17 +28%
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $71 −$71 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? SELL Yes 34¢ $6 22m
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? BUY No 54¢ $2 1h
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? SELL Yes 29¢ $6 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? SELL No 91¢ $6 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? SELL No 91¢ $51 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? SELL No 92¢ $0 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? SELL No 92¢ $1 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? SELL No 91¢ $3 2h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? SELL No 91¢ $24 2h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY No 87¢ $4 2h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY No 85¢ $4 2h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? SELL No 89¢ $5 2h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? SELL No 91¢ $1 2h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? SELL No 91¢ $6 2h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? SELL No 91¢ $1 2h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? SELL No 91¢ $2 2h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? SELL No 91¢ $0 2h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? SELL No 91¢ $1 2h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY No 92¢ $29 2h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY No 93¢ $46 2h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY No 90¢ $9 2h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY No 88¢ $10 2h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 56¢ $2 4h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 56¢ $2 4h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 56¢ $1 4h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 56¢ $4 5h
Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 88¢ $6 5h
Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 88¢ $5 5h
Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 89¢ $2 5h
Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 89¢ $3 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $235.03 · official $235.31 (match) · 309 history records