trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026? | No | 89¢ | 90¢ | $38 | $38 | +$0 (+1%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | Jun 13 | $22 | $0 | +0% |
| Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | Jun 12 | $4 | +$1 | +37% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | Jun 10 | $19 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra | Jun 09 | $39 | −$3 | -8% |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | Jun 09 | $43 | $0 | +0% |
| Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? | Jun 09 | $2 | $0 | +13% |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? | Jun 08 | $2 | $0 | -12% |
| Iran leadership change by June 30? | Jun 07 | $1 | $0 | +8% |
| Iran closes its airspace by June 30? | Jun 07 | $35 | −$1 | -3% |
| Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? | Jun 05 | $40 | $0 | +0% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? | Jun 05 | $7 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? | Dec 10 | $2 | $0 | +3% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2025 meeting? | Jun 19 | $2 | $0 | +4% |
| Will Lee Jun-seok win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential elect | Jun 04 | $1 | $0 | +8% |
| Will Armenia finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 5? | May 19 | $0 | $0 | -100% |
| Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? | Apr 25 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the U.S. recognize Syrian government by March 31? | Mar 29 | $60 | +$1 | +1% |
| Solana above $130 on March 28? | Mar 29 | $20 | +$40 | +198% |
| Will Elon tweet 350-374 times March 21-28? | Mar 28 | $20 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the New York Islanders win the 2025 Stanley Cup? | Mar 23 | $20 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Elon tweet 625-649 times March 14-21? | Mar 23 | $18 | +$1 | +4% |
| Will the highest temperature in London be 54°F or higher on March 16? | Mar 16 | $1 | $0 | -13% |
| Will the SPD win 15-20% of the vote in the German election? | Mar 15 | $19 | $0 | +1% |
| Sharks vs. Sabres | Mar 04 | $19 | $0 | -2% |
| Will Bayern Munich vs. Bayer Leverkusen end in a draw? | Mar 04 | $19 | $0 | -1% |
| Will the highest temperature in London be between 55-56°F on March 5? | Mar 04 | $16 | +$4 | +22% |
| Will John Fetterman applaud during Trump's address to Congress? | Mar 04 | $16 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Napoli Beat Inter Milan? | Mar 04 | $11 | +$5 | +43% |
| Incarnate Word vs. Texas A&M Commerce | Mar 01 | $14 | −$3 | -22% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 9 | +3.9% | -6.0% | 33% | 22% | -10.9% |
| ≤30d | 11 | +3.2% | -6.7% | 27% | 18% | -10.6% |
| ≤90d | 11 | +3.2% | -6.7% | 27% | 18% | -10.6% |
| all | 29 | +6.3% | -3.8% | 52% | 17% | -1.2% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -3.8% | 17% | -1.2% |
| 10% | -13.1% | 10% | -10.6% |
| 15% | -21.5% | 10% | -19.3% |
| 20% | -29.2% | 3% | -27.2% |