Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T16:08:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

86
0x8631…aa53
politics · 4 markets active 596d ago
0.0score
+$9,462,196 +232%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$9,462,196 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY politics specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample⚠ Possible transfer/wash account
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized+$9,462,196
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses4 / 0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)4 / 4
History coverage2d
Avg bet$1,020,286
Trades / day1799.1
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 0 History 4 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Kamala Harris wins the popular vote? Nov 12 $1,033,876 +$1,672,065 +162%
Will Donald Trump win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Electi Nov 12 $2,456,196 +$4,057,912 +165%
Will a Republican win the popular vote and the Presidency? Nov 07 $121,803 +$223,379 +183%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 06 $469,271 +$3,508,840 +748%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 100% +$9,462,196
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 60¢ $10,485 596d
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 60¢ $95 596d
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 60¢ $15 596d
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 60¢ $99 596d
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 60¢ $88 596d
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 60¢ $21 596d
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 60¢ $24 596d
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 60¢ $968 596d
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 60¢ $153 596d
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 60¢ $23 596d
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 60¢ $8 596d
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 60¢ $154 596d
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 60¢ $24 596d
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 60¢ $18 596d
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 60¢ $3 596d
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 60¢ $17 596d
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 60¢ $3 596d
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 60¢ $58 596d
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 60¢ $23 596d
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 60¢ $2 596d
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 60¢ $22 596d
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 60¢ $23 596d
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 60¢ $16 596d
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 60¢ $170 596d
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 60¢ $2 596d
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 60¢ $23 596d
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 60¢ $16 596d
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 60¢ $2 596d
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 60¢ $22 596d
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 60¢ $2 596d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +100%
net ROI/market (all)+275.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d no closed markets
all 4 +314.5% +275.0% 100% 100% +200.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1799.1 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +275.0% 100% +200.2%
10% +239.1% 100% +171.5%
15% ← realistic here +206.4% 100% +145.3%
20% +176.3% 100% +121.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records