Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T04:38:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
86 0x8630…158b other 52 markets active 1h ago coverage 181d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$578 (-2%) realized −$607 · open +$29
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate61%28W / 18L
Whale WR83%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$498per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$157est.
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$3,069now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$955
7 days−$1,707
14 days−$1,137
30 days−$1,137
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 67% −$1,009
sports 27% +$11
world 4% +$559
crypto 2% +$57
politics 1% −$24
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -3.1% -12.3% 57% 37% -17.7%
≤30d 31 -2.0% -11.4% 58% 39% -14.5%
≤90d 33 +0.7% -8.9% 61% 42% -13.8%
all 46 -0.6% -10.0% 61% 46% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 46% -11.2%
10% -18.6% 35% -19.7%
15% -26.5% 24% -27.5%
20% -33.7% 15% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 83% (≥$558) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -7% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$135 vs −$234 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

181d coverage
Net worth$3,069
Realized−$607
Unrealized+$29
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses28 / 18
Whale WR (big bets)83%
Est. fees paid−$157
Open positions6
Markets (closed)46 / 52
History coverage181d
Avg bet$498
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 46 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Under 80¢ 84¢ $1,361 $1,411 +$51 (+4%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 20¢ $500 $534 +$34 (+7%)
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? No 72¢ 62¢ $383 $327 −$56 (-15%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $275 $277 +$2 (+1%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 14¢ $264 $273 +$9 (+3%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $258 $247 −$11 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $658 +$218 +33%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $1,865 +$169 +9%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $2,137 +$27 +1%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 23 $103 −$27 -27%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $1,834 +$303 +16%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $513 −$323 -63%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 21 $468 −$288 -62%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $514 +$594 +116%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1,570 +$281 +18%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $731 +$167 +23%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $522 −$230 -44%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $515 +$8 +2%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $65 +$139 +214%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $352 +$24 +7%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $342 +$10 +3%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $284 +$59 +21%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $51 −$22 -43%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $715 −$122 -17%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $181 −$98 -54%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $102 −$6 -6%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 19 $558 +$116 +21%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $52 −$33 -64%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $154 +$35 +23%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $205 +$98 +48%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $335 −$204 -61%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $600 +$61 +10%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $514 −$514 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $193 +$129 +67%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $207 −$207 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2,469 −$2,069 -84%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 16 $1,899 +$570 +30%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 20 $500 +$93 +18%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga? May 19 $59 +$41 +70%
Will Henrique Gouveia e Melo win the 2026 Portugal presidential electi Feb 11 $24 −$24 -100%
Will João Cotrim Figueiredo win the 2026 Portugal presidential electio Feb 03 $139 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? Feb 02 $13 −$13 -100%
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Feb 02 $36 +$14 +39%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on January 31? Jan 31 $70 +$30 +43%
Will Senegal win the CAF Africa Cup of Nations Morocco 2025? Jan 19 $2 +$1 +27%
Will Senegal vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jan 19 $7 +$3 +45%
US strikes Iran by January 18, 2026? Jan 19 $1,000 +$540 +54%
Will Morocco win the CAF Africa Cup of Nations Morocco 2025? Jan 18 $8 −$6 -76%
US strikes Iran by January 17, 2026? Jan 18 $31 +$18 +59%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in January? Jan 14 $33 −$33 -100%
Maduro out in 2025? Jan 03 $97 +$3 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on December 24? Dec 25 $64 +$36 +56%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 72¢ $388 44m
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? SELL Yes 30¢ $877 58m
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 85¢ $364 1h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 79¢ $1,011 1h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $432 1h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $226 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $1,865 3h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $272 3h
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 24¢ $75 3h
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $103 4h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $498 4h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 98¢ $2,137 7h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 85¢ $1,834 10h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? SELL Yes 11¢ $190 10h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $513 11h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 9¢ $180 29h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $468 30h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 72¢ $626 31h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 33¢ $483 32h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $514 33h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 84¢ $1,111 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 84¢ $459 2d
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 95¢ $439 2d
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 79¢ $439 2d
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 51¢ $292 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 49¢ $292 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 85¢ $522 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 98¢ $515 2d
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? SELL Yes 72¢ $203 2d
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $65 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,069.34 · official $3,035.54 · 124 history records