Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T03:44:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
86 0x8630…91c9 crypto 138 markets active 0h ago coverage 179d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$924 (-5%) realized −$524 · open −$400
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate61%83W / 52L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$125per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$32now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$105
7 days−$105
14 days−$105
30 days−$105
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 80% −$244
other 14% −$184
sports 6% −$1,068
world 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-4.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 93 -7.8% -16.6% 73% 31% -10.2%
≤30d 93 -7.8% -16.6% 73% 31% -10.2%
≤90d 93 -7.8% -16.6% 73% 31% -10.2%
all 135 +5.6% -4.4% 61% 30% -15.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.4% 30% -15.7%
10% -13.6% 17% -23.8%
15% -21.9% 10% -31.2%
20% -29.6% 7% -37.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
48% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$52 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

179d coverage
Net worth$32
Realized−$524
Unrealized−$400
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses83 / 52
Open positions3
Markets (closed)135 / 138
History coverage179d
Avg bet$125
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 135 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Up 67¢ 68¢ $32 $32 +$0 (+1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Down 82¢ 0¢ $300 $0 −$300 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Up 42¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 17 $106 −$85 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 17 $100 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 17 $205 +$55 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 17 $280 −$89 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 17 $126 −$25 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 17 $105 +$34 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$4 +183%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 17 $304 +$2 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 17 $103 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 17 $304 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 17 $78 +$11 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 17 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 16 $202 +$5 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 16 $300 +$5 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 16 $227 −$11 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 16 $481 +$28 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 16 $100 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 16 $447 +$16 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 16 $100 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 16 $426 +$17 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 16 $226 +$11 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 16 $305 +$15 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 16 $303 +$41 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 16 $51 −$22 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 16 $401 +$10 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $200 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 16 $202 +$24 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 16 $29 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 16 $281 +$69 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 16 $50 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 16 $200 +$6 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 15 $429 +$73 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 15 $503 −$70 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 15 $79 −$48 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $25 +$6 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 15 $150 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $25 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 15 $51 +$8 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 15 $25 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $51 +$9 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 15 $226 +$11 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 15 $25 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 15 $225 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $400 +$4 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 15 $25 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 15 $26 +$12 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $25 +$2 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $33 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET SELL Down 4¢ $20 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $106 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $100 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $26 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET SELL Up 51¢ $25 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $104 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $100 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $104 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $25 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $25 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $25 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $101 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $104 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $26 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET SELL Down 37¢ $140 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $105 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET SELL Up 27¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET SELL Down 0¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET SELL Down 87¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $100 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.49 · official $32.49 (match) · 549 history records