Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T01:29:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
86 0x862f…7e34 crypto 1369 markets active 1h ago coverage 114d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$450 (-5%) realized −$410 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate33%446W / 898L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day15.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$16now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$21
7 days−$14
14 days+$26
30 days+$30
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 80% −$365
weather 20% −$40
sports 0% −$1
other 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-30.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -10.7% -19.2% 35% 35% -20.4%
≤30d 58 +16.2% +5.2% 47% 47% -0.3%
≤90d 1026 -28.1% -35.0% 27% 26% -12.8%
all 1344 -23.2% -30.5% 33% 30% -13.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.5% 30% -13.4%
10% -37.1% 29% -21.7%
15% -43.2% 29% -29.3%
20% -48.8% 29% -36.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -40% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$4 · ×1.76 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

114d coverage
Net worth$16
Realized−$410
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses446 / 898
Open positions3
Markets (closed)1344 / 1369
History coverage114d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day15.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 1344 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 15? Yes 46¢ 46¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 15? Yes 36¢ 36¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 15? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Up 3¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Down 3¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Down 4¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Down 38¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Down 55¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Down 5¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Up 4¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Up 49¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Up 66¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Up 53¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Down 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Down 7¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Down 48¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Up 5¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Up 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 13? Yes 29¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 10? Yes 27¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Up 54¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on April 15? Yes 88¢ 0¢ $70 $0 −$70 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Up 43¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Down 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 +$8 +143%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on June 13? Jun 14 $5 +$8 +137%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $6 +$11 +202%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 13? Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $6 −$5 -97%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 12? Jun 12 $6 −$5 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 +$6 +103%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on June 11? Jun 11 $6 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on June 11? Jun 11 $6 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C on June 10? Jun 10 $6 +$13 +245%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 30°C on June 10? Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 10? Jun 10 $6 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on June 10? Jun 10 $6 −$6 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 9? Jun 09 $6 +$7 +131%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 10? Jun 09 $6 −$5 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 9? Jun 09 $5 −$5 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 8? Jun 08 $3 +$4 +102%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 8? Jun 08 $3 +$6 +177%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 8? Jun 08 $3 −$3 -86%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 9? Jun 08 $3 −$3 -97%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 8? Jun 08 $3 −$3 -97%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 7? Jun 07 $3 +$9 +256%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on June 7? Jun 07 $3 +$7 +203%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on June 7? Jun 07 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 6? Jun 07 $4 +$4 +121%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 6? Jun 06 $3 +$4 +117%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on June 6? Jun 06 $3 +$9 +257%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 6? Jun 06 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 6? Jun 06 $4 −$3 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C on June 5? Jun 05 $3 +$3 +88%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 5? Jun 05 $3 +$5 +138%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 30°C or higher on June 4? Jun 05 $3 +$4 +107%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 4? Jun 05 $3 +$7 +193%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 4? Jun 04 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 4? Jun 04 $4 −$4 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 4? Jun 04 $4 −$3 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on June 4? Jun 03 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 3? Jun 03 $3 +$5 +140%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 3? Jun 03 $3 +$5 +131%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C on June 3? Jun 03 $3 +$9 +267%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C or below on June 3? Jun 03 $5 +$5 +91%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on June 3? Jun 03 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 2? Jun 01 $5 −$5 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 1? Jun 01 $6 +$6 +111%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on June 1? Jun 01 $6 +$5 +96%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 1? Jun 01 $6 +$8 +142%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 1? Jun 01 $6 −$6 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 15? BUY Yes 36¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 15? BUY Yes 46¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 15? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 14? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 19h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 14? BUY Yes 43¢ $6 25h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 14? BUY Yes 40¢ $5 25h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 14? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 30h
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 13? BUY Yes 29¢ $0 35h
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 13? BUY Yes 29¢ $4 35h
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 13? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 35h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on June 13? BUY Yes 41¢ $5 43h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 13? BUY Yes 27¢ $6 47h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 13? BUY Yes 32¢ $6 2d
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 12? BUY Yes 42¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 12? BUY Yes 42¢ $4 2d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on June 12? BUY Yes 27¢ $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on June 12? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on June 12? BUY Yes 26¢ $4 2d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 12? BUY Yes 42¢ $6 3d
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 12? BUY Yes 36¢ $6 3d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 12? BUY Yes 41¢ $5 3d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 32°C on June 11? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 32°C on June 11? BUY Yes 27¢ $4 3d
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on June 11? BUY Yes 27¢ $6 3d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 11? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 11? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 11? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 11? BUY Yes 28¢ $2 3d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on June 11? BUY Yes 27¢ $6 4d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 11? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $15.96 · official $15.96 (match) · 2257 history records