Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T12:44:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
86 0x862c…8cb8 sports 341 markets active 1h ago coverage 650d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$34 (-0%) realized −$34 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate10%33W / 307L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$69per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$40now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$11
14 days−$26
30 days−$38
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 30% −$6
other 29% −$20
politics 28% −$16
economics 6% −$3
crypto 2% −$4
tech 2% −$3
world 1% $0
culture 1% −$1
finance 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -0.8% -10.2% 14% 0% -10.1%
≤30d 81 -0.6% -10.1% 10% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 84 -0.6% -10.1% 10% 0% -10.0%
all 340 -0.2% -9.7% 10% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 54% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.16 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.16 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

650d coverage
Net worth$40
Realized−$34
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses33 / 307
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)340 / 341
History coverage650d
Avg bet$69
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 340 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? No 93¢ 92¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 16 $102 −$1 -1%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 16 $150 −$1 -1%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 15 $203 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 15 $158 −$2 -1%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $230 $0 +0%
Will Uruguay reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 15 $55 −$1 -1%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $46 $0 -0%
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $57 −$1 -1%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $119 $0 -0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun Jun 13 $52 $0 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 13 $59 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? Jun 13 $5 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 12 $43 $0 +0%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $8 $0 -1%
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? Jun 12 $5 $0 -1%
Will Lionel Messi win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $43 −$1 -2%
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $60 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $216 −$1 -0%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $40 $0 -0%
Will a player representing Norway be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FI Jun 10 $52 −$1 -2%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 09 $54 $0 -1%
Will Uruguay reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $45 −$2 -4%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 09 $52 $0 -1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? Jun 08 $44 $0 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? Jun 08 $47 −$1 -2%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 08 $63 $0 -1%
Will The Odyssey be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 07 $52 $0 -0%
Will Austria reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $29 −$1 -2%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? Jun 07 $48 $0 -1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.2T? Jun 07 $64 $0 +0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $84 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $160,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $108 −$2 -2%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 06 $354 −$3 -1%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $97 $0 -0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Jun 05 $64 −$1 -2%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 05 $87 $0 -0%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Jun 05 $54 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 04 $126 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 04 $156 $0 -0%
Will Rupert Lowe be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 Jun 04 $39 $0 -0%
Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 04 $43 −$1 -3%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $164 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? Jun 03 $48 −$1 -2%
Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 Jun 03 $107 −$1 -0%
Will Raphinha be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $54 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? Jun 02 $55 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 02 $38 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $57 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $132 $0 +0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $52 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 93¢ $40 1h
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 93¢ $42 1h
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 93¢ $43 8h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 97¢ $46 9h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $47 17h
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 97¢ $49 17h
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 97¢ $49 21h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? SELL No 95¢ $51 22h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? BUY No 96¢ $52 28h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $39 28h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $39 33h
Will Uruguay reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 96¢ $54 34h
Will Uruguay reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 97¢ $55 40h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 96¢ $59 40h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $59 2d
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 97¢ $46 2d
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 97¢ $46 2d
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 95¢ $57 2d
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 95¢ $57 2d
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $59 2d
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $59 2d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun SELL No 96¢ $51 2d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun BUY No 96¢ $52 2d
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $59 2d
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $59 3d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? SELL No 98¢ $5 3d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? BUY No 97¢ $5 3d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL No 98¢ $43 3d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY No 98¢ $43 3d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 96¢ $8 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40.02 · official $40.02 (match) · 1330 history records