Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T23:34:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
86 0x862b…6f54 sports 23 markets active 1h ago coverage 105d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$119 (+1%) realized +$119 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -30% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate26%6W / 17L
Whale WR17%big bets
Drawdown42%max
Avg bet$364per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 51% +$142
other 28% +$4
weather 20% −$5
crypto 0% −$21
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-36.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 2 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 21 -23.0% -30.3% 29% 10% -8.0%
all 23 -29.7% -36.4% 26% 9% -8.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -36.4% 9% -8.2%
10% -42.4% 9% -17.0%
15% -48.0% 9% -25.0%
20% -53.1% 9% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 96% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -30% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 17% (≥$835) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -19% → late -40% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$35 vs −$5 · ×6.66 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.35 per $1 lost it wins $2.35
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

105d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized+$119
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses6 / 17
Whale WR (big bets)17%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)23 / 23
History coverage105d
Avg bet$364
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown42%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 23 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mostafa Pourmohammadi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 16 $5 $0 -0%
Will Civic Platform (GP) gain the most seats in the next Russian parli Jun 04 $3 $0 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? May 17 $2 $0 -0%
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026? Apr 22 $10 $0 +0%
Vancouver Whitecaps FC vs. New York City FC: O/U 2.5 Apr 13 $89 +$109 +122%
Derby County FC vs. Stoke City FC: Both Teams to Score Apr 07 $12 −$12 -100%
Panthers vs. Penguins: O/U 6.5 Apr 06 $4 −$4 -100%
NAC Breda vs. Sparta Rotterdam: O/U 2.5 Apr 06 $10 −$10 -100%
Jeju SK FC vs. Bucheon FC 1995: Both Teams to Score Apr 04 $11 −$11 -100%
Chengdu Rongcheng FC vs. Qingdao Xihaian FC: Both Teams to Score Apr 04 $3 −$3 -100%
Independiente Santa Fe vs. Llaneros FC: Both Teams to Score Apr 03 $4 −$4 -100%
Montenegro vs. Slovenia: Both Teams to Score Apr 01 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Meta (META) close above $640 end of March? Apr 01 $731 +$3 +0%
KHL: Torpedo vs. Severstal Cherepovets Mar 30 $94 +$90 +96%
Pierce Brosnan announced as next James Bond? Mar 27 $845 −$2 -0%
Will De'Aaron Fox lead the NBA in steals during the 2025–26 NBA season Mar 27 $859 +$3 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C or higher on March 29? Mar 27 $866 −$3 -0%
Will Fulham be relegated from the English Premier League after the 202 Mar 27 $1,510 −$5 -0%
Will the Vancouver Canucks win the 2025–2026 NHL Presidents' Trophy? Mar 27 $1,683 −$2 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 5°C on March 29? Mar 27 $835 −$2 -0%
Will Gold (GC) settle over $5,800 on the final trading day of March 20 Mar 27 $777 +$2 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 5, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Mar 06 $11 −$11 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 4, 10AM ET Mar 05 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mostafa Pourmohammadi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $5 45m
Will Mostafa Pourmohammadi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $5 1h
Will Civic Platform (GP) gain the most seats in the next Russian parli SELL No 100¢ $3 12d
Will Civic Platform (GP) gain the most seats in the next Russian parli BUY No 100¢ $3 15d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $2 30d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $2 30d
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 55d
Vancouver Whitecaps FC vs. New York City FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 45¢ $89 69d
Derby County FC vs. Stoke City FC: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $12 71d
Panthers vs. Penguins: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 48¢ $4 72d
NAC Breda vs. Sparta Rotterdam: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $10 74d
Jeju SK FC vs. Bucheon FC 1995: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $11 74d
Chengdu Rongcheng FC vs. Qingdao Xihaian FC: Both Teams to Score BUY No 53¢ $3 75d
Independiente Santa Fe vs. Llaneros FC: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $4 76d
Montenegro vs. Slovenia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 52¢ $8 77d
KHL: Torpedo vs. Severstal Cherepovets BUY Torpedo 51¢ $94 80d
Pierce Brosnan announced as next James Bond? SELL No 99¢ $843 81d
Pierce Brosnan announced as next James Bond? BUY No 99¢ $845 81d
Will Meta (META) close above $640 end of March? SELL No 98¢ $733 81d
Will Meta (META) close above $640 end of March? BUY No 97¢ $731 81d
Will De'Aaron Fox lead the NBA in steals during the 2025–26 NBA season SELL No 100¢ $863 81d
Will De'Aaron Fox lead the NBA in steals during the 2025–26 NBA season BUY No 99¢ $859 81d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C or higher on March 29? SELL No 99¢ $3 81d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C or higher on March 29? SELL No 99¢ $860 81d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C or higher on March 29? BUY No 100¢ $866 81d
Will Fulham be relegated from the English Premier League after the 202 SELL No 100¢ $748 81d
Will Fulham be relegated from the English Premier League after the 202 BUY No 100¢ $749 81d
Will Fulham be relegated from the English Premier League after the 202 SELL No 99¢ $747 81d
Will Fulham be relegated from the English Premier League after the 202 SELL No 99¢ $10 81d
Will Fulham be relegated from the English Premier League after the 202 BUY No 100¢ $761 81d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.00 · official $10.00 (match) · 54 history records