Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:29:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
86 0x8627…30f0 crypto 103 markets active 5d ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$158 (-11%) realized −$158 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate40%41W / 62L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day16.9pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$72
14 days−$195
30 days−$195
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 37% −$41
sports 34% −$57
other 29% −$97
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-19.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 50 -4.2% -13.3% 48% 46% -17.6%
≤30d 103 -11.0% -19.5% 40% 38% -22.6%
≤90d 103 -11.0% -19.5% 40% 38% -22.6%
all 103 -11.0% -19.5% 40% 38% -22.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.5% 38% -22.6%
10% -27.2% 36% -30.0%
15% -34.2% 33% -36.8%
20% -40.7% 31% -43.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$10 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$158
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses41 / 62
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)103 / 103
History coverage9d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day16.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 103 Trades
no open positions (40 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $36 −$17 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3AM ET Jun 12 $9 −$9 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 12 $6 +$4 +63%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$5 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -93%
Counter-Strike: Wanted Goons vs Overtake (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playoff Jun 12 $14 +$2 +11%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $91 −$25 -27%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $8 +$2 +23%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $17 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$3 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 11 $7 −$7 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$3 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$4 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$4 -96%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $31 −$27 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 11 $10 −$7 -67%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $13 +$25 +200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5AM ET Jun 11 $12 −$12 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 11 $7 +$5 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2AM ET Jun 11 $7 −$7 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$3 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 11 $8 +$4 +55%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 11 $20 −$12 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -96%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $100 −$98 -98%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 11 $104 +$26 +25%
Connecticut Sun vs. Toronto Tempo Jun 11 $15 +$10 +69%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets Jun 11 $64 +$30 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 10 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 10 $10 −$10 -95%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 10 $16 +$13 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 10 $20 +$16 +78%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $47 +$13 +27%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage Jun 10 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 10 $12 −$11 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 10 $10 +$13 +127%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 10 $13 +$11 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 10 $10 +$7 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$34 +670%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$3 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$4 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 10 $9 +$4 +40%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL FUT Esports 6¢ $1 4d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 57¢ $6 4d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL G2 43¢ $6 4d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 80¢ $12 4d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL G2 46¢ $12 4d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 66¢ $18 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3AM ET SELL Down 1¢ $0 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $9 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $6 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $2 5d
Counter-Strike: Wanted Goons vs Overtake (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playoff SELL Overtake 98¢ $15 5d
Counter-Strike: Wanted Goons vs Overtake (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playoff BUY Overtake 86¢ $14 5d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 65¢ $63 5d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 64¢ $63 5d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 27¢ $28 5d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes SELL Hurricanes 90¢ $10 5d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates SELL Los Angeles Dodgers 100¢ $18 5d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 93¢ $17 5d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes BUY Hurricanes 71¢ $8 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $5 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET SELL Down 2¢ $0 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $7 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $5 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 177 history records