Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T18:52:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
86 0x8627…dafb crypto 1492 markets active 0h ago coverage 52d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 52d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$344 (-19%) realized −$344 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -41% what you keep after slip
Net edge-41%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate60%1156W / 769L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day37.1pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$498
7 days−$484
14 days−$483
30 days−$495
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$53
other 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-30.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 605 -67.6% -70.6% 21% 19% -71.3%
≤30d 936 -42.0% -47.6% 38% 35% -47.9%
≤90d 1925 -23.1% -30.5% 60% 28% -31.4%
all 1925 -23.1% -30.5% 60% 28% -31.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover37.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -30.5% 28% -31.4%
10% ← realistic here -37.1% 12% -38.0%
15% -43.2% 4% -44.0%
20% -48.8% 2% -49.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -24% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
48% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt -24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -41% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.17 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.26 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

52d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$344
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses1156 / 769
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1925 / 1492
History coverage52d ⚠
Avg bet$1
Trades / day37.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1925 Trades
no open positions (500 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
XRP Up or Down - April 18, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 18, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 18, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -78%
XRP Up or Down - April 16, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 3, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 16, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 16, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 3, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 15, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 15, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 16, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 14, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 18, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 18, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 15, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 18, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 15, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -75%
Solana Up or Down - April 3, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 18, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 15, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 18, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 18, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 15, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 3, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 16, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 16, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $1 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $1 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $1 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $1 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $1 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $1 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $1 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $1 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $1 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $1 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $1 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $1 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $1 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $1 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records