Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T14:38:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

86
0x8625…0c5d
sports · 220 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$28 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$28 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$18
Realized−$28
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses19 / 200
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)219 / 220
History coverage149d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day5.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%
Chart Positions 1 History 219 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$6
14 days−$9
30 days−$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? No 92¢ 92¢ $18 $18 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 13 $69 $0 -0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 13 $68 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 13 $66 −$1 -2%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 12 $62 $0 -1%
Will Czechia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $10 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 12 $10 $0 -1%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $121 −$1 -1%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $48 $0 -0%
Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $18 $0 -0%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 10 $22 −$1 -4%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 10 $58 $0 -0%
Will Abbas Araghchi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 10 $41 $0 -1%
Will Boston Celtics win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 09 $13 $0 -3%
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 09 $20 $0 -1%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 09 $62 $0 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? Jun 09 $11 $0 -2%
Will a player representing Germany be the top goalscorer at the 2026 F Jun 08 $24 $0 -1%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Jun 08 $18 $0 +2%
Will a player representing Belgium be the top goalscorer at the 2026 F Jun 08 $14 $0 -2%
Will The Odyssey be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 07 $21 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $20 $0 -0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $33 $0 -0%
Will Colombia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 06 $17 $0 -2%
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 05 $25 $0 -2%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 05 $18 $0 -0%
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 05 $15 $0 -1%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 04 $208 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 04 $109 $0 -0%
Spread: San Diego Padres (-3.5) Jun 04 $21 +$2 +10%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $62 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 03 $23 $0 -1%
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 02 $65 −$1 -1%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $115 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 01 $47 $0 -0%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 01 $145 −$1 -1%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 31 $93 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $43 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 30 $61 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet May 30 $82 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? May 27 $14 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 27 $24 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 26 $73 $0 -0%
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 26 $20 $0 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 26 $20 $0 +2%
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 25 $28 $0 -1%
Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 25 $45 $0 -1%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 25 $159 $0 -0%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $18 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom May 24 $80 −$1 -1%
Will the Buffalo Bills win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 24 $43 −$1 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 28% −$10
sports 22% −$3
other 21% −$9
culture 7% −$2
crypto 7% −$2
world 6% −$1
economics 4% $0
tech 4% −$1
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 92¢ $18 53m
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 97¢ $22 1h
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 97¢ $22 6h
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 97¢ $8 7h
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 94¢ $8 12h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? SELL No 94¢ $16 12h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? BUY No 95¢ $16 19h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 96¢ $22 20h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $22 20h
Will Czechia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $10 20h
Will Czechia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $10 27h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 96¢ $22 28h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $22 36h
Will Ecuador reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 97¢ $10 36h
Will Ecuador reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 98¢ $10 43h
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 94¢ $18 44h
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 94¢ $18 2d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 91¢ $21 2d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 91¢ $21 2d
Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL No 97¢ $18 2d
Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 98¢ $18 2d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 94¢ $22 2d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 98¢ $22 2d
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $16 2d
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $16 3d
Will Abbas Araghchi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 96¢ $17 3d
Will Abbas Araghchi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $17 3d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 91¢ $13 3d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 91¢ $13 3d
Will Boston Celtics win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL No 91¢ $13 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -0.9% -10.3% 5% 0% -10.2%
≤30d 69 -0.5% -10.0% 7% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 103 -0.4% -9.9% 10% 0% -9.8%
all 219 -0.8% -10.2% 9% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover5.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 0% -9.8%
10% -18.8% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.6% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.8% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $17.62 · official $17.62 (match) · 952 history records