Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:39:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
86 0x8624…2e8a crypto 359 markets active 3d ago coverage 36d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$135 (-4%) realized −$135 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate50%178W / 181L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day25.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$97
14 days−$98
30 days−$131
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 53% −$8
crypto 47% −$199
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-20.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 141 -8.1% -16.8% 59% 18% -17.3%
≤30d 285 -12.1% -20.5% 49% 19% -13.2%
≤90d 359 -12.0% -20.4% 50% 19% -14.6%
all 359 -12.0% -20.4% 50% 19% -14.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.4% 19% -14.6%
10% ← realistic here -28.0% 13% -22.8%
15% -35.0% 11% -30.2%
20% -41.3% 10% -37.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
61% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$5 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

36d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$135
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses178 / 181
Open positions0
Markets (closed)359 / 359
History coverage36d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day25.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 359 Trades
no open positions (46 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 15? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 14 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 14 $8 +$2 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 14 $8 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 14 $9 −$1 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 14 $12 +$3 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$8 +251%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$10 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 14 $8 −$4 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 14 $7 −$2 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 14 $7 +$4 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 14 $6 +$3 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 14 $6 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 14 $8 −$4 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 14 $8 −$5 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$6 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 14 $6 −$5 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 14 $8 +$5 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 14 $6 −$5 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 14 $9 +$12 +130%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 14 $8 −$5 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 14 $9 −$4 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$7 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 13 $6 −$5 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 13 $6 −$5 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 13 $6 +$8 +135%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$1 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 15? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET SELL Up 8¢ $0 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET SELL Up 8¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET SELL Down 48¢ $6 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET SELL Up 1¢ $0 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $10 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1090 history records