Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:04:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
86 0x861e…e811 sports 37 markets active 2d ago coverage 571d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL −$130 (-2%) realized −$130 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate19%7W / 30L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$190per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$9
14 days−$9
30 days−$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 53% −$8
other 40% −$4
sports 7% −$119
economics 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-28.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 9 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 9 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
all 37 -21.4% -28.9% 19% 19% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.9% 19% -11.2%
10% -35.7% 19% -19.7%
15% -41.9% 19% -27.5%
20% -47.6% 19% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 67% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -51% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$11 · ×2.51 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

571d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$130
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses7 / 30
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)37 / 37
History coverage571d
Avg bet$190
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 37 Trades
no open positions (12 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $450 −$1 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $1,000 −$1 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $1,330 −$2 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 12 $470 −$1 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 12 $690 −$1 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 12 $700 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $390 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $560 −$1 -0%
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $910 −$1 -0%
Kings vs. Capitals Nov 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Flyers vs. Predators Nov 06 $11 −$11 -100%
Avalanche vs. Golden Knights Nov 03 $8 +$8 +89%
Delaware Blue Hens vs. Jacksonville State Oct 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Jets vs. Islanders Oct 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Astros vs. Angels Oct 09 $17 +$22 +127%
Royals vs. Angels Sep 26 $12 +$12 +96%
Rays vs. Orioles Sep 25 $12 +$12 +100%
Lions vs. Ravens Sep 23 $4 +$9 +212%
Cubs vs. Pirates Sep 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Angels vs. Mariners Sep 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Astros vs. Yankees Aug 08 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Victoria Livschitz win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Champions Aug 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Braves vs. Reds Aug 01 $4 −$4 -100%
Diamondbacks vs. Tigers Jul 29 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2025 Drivers Champion? May 12 $5 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2025 Drivers Champion? May 07 $6 $0 -0%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 17 $4 $0 -2%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 10 $6 $0 -2%
Will Bayern Munich win the UEFA Champions League? Apr 09 $5 $0 -1%
Will Hunor Kelemen win the Romanian presidential election? Mar 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the New York Islanders win the 2025 President’s Trophy? Feb 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Mavericks vs. 76ers Feb 05 $114 +$102 +89%
Magic vs. Warriors Feb 04 $104 −$104 -100%
Mavericks vs. Pistons Feb 03 $103 −$103 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 75+ bps after December 2024 meeting? Jan 31 $2 −$2 -100%
Hawks vs. Bulls Nov 26 $49 −$49 -100%
Pistons vs. Hornets Nov 22 $24 +$24 +100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $240 41h
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $250 41h
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $430 41h
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $240 4d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $250 4d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $430 4d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $190 4d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $340 4d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $399 4d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $190 4d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $340 4d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $400 4d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $150 4d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $380 4d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $399 4d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $380 5d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $150 5d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $400 5d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $160 5d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $370 5d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $400 5d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $160 5d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $370 5d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $400 5d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $180 5d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $240 5d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $509 5d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $180 6d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $240 6d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $510 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 93 history records