Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T07:08:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
86 0x861b…d8ca crypto 158 markets active 1h ago coverage 153d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$2,124 (-16%) realized −$2,124 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate27%43W / 114L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$82per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$73est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$60
7 days+$462
14 days+$455
30 days+$181
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 43% +$370
crypto 32% −$1,562
weather 12% −$747
world 7% +$123
other 4% −$163
economics 1% −$138
politics 1% −$68
culture 0% −$16
tech 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-20.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +102.6% +83.3% 75% 75% +135.2%
≤30d 13 -19.5% -27.2% 31% 31% +7.8%
≤90d 38 +10.5% -0.1% 39% 39% +21.7%
all 157 -11.9% -20.3% 27% 27% -26.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.3% 27% -26.4%
10% -27.9% 24% -33.4%
15% -34.9% 22% -39.9%
20% -41.3% 21% -45.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +34% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -26% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$98 vs −$56 · ×1.74 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

153d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2,124
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses43 / 114
Est. fees paid−$73
Open positions0
Markets (closed)157 / 158
History coverage153d
Avg bet$82
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 157 Trades
no open positions (94 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 2.5 AND Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain O/U Jun 21 $36 +$5 +14%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $101 +$55 +54%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $102 +$453 +442%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 14 $105 −$8 -7%
UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main Jun 07 $198 +$86 +43%
UFC Fight Night: Bryce Mitchell vs. Santiago Luna (Bantamweight, Main Jun 06 $110 −$70 -63%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 06 $39 −$38 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Bruno Silva vs. Édgar Cháirez (Flyweight, Prelims) Jun 06 $38 −$37 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Ariane Carnelossi vs. Ketlen Souza (Women's Strawweig Jun 06 $6 −$6 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Yuneisy Duben vs. Jeisla Chaves (Women's Flyweight, P Jun 02 $28 −$28 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Sergei Pavlovich vs. Tallison Teixeira (Heavyweight, May 29 $69 −$67 -98%
O/U 0.5 Rounds May 28 $114 −$113 -99%
UFC Fight Night: Malcolm Wellmaker vs. Juan Diaz (Bantamweight, Main C May 17 $36 −$35 -99%
UFC Fight Night: Arnold Allen vs. Melquizael Costa (Featherweight, Mai May 17 $38 −$2 -6%
UFC 328: Alexander Volkov vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta (Heavyweight, Main C May 05 $70 −$69 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Carlos Prates vs. Jack Della Maddalena (Welterweight, May 03 $62 +$58 +93%
UFC Fight Night: Aljamain Sterling vs. Youssef Zalal (Featherweight, M Apr 24 $166 −$6 -4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 21 $140 +$25 +18%
UFC Fight Night: Kyler Phillips vs. Charles Jourdain (Bantamweight, Ma Apr 19 $300 +$231 +77%
UFC Fight Night: Gilbert Burns vs. Mike Malott (Welterweight, Main Car Apr 18 $100 −$98 -98%
Will Trump visit China by May 8? Apr 18 $9 −$2 -27%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30? Apr 18 $260 −$33 -13%
UFC 327: Curtis Blaydes vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Apr 12 $143 +$156 +109%
Will the fight be won by submission? Apr 12 $3 −$3 -97%
UFC 327: Jirí Procházka vs. Carlos Ulberg (Light Heavyweight, Main Car Apr 12 $540 −$8 -2%
UFC 327: Tatiana Suarez vs. Loopy Godínez (Women's Strawweight, Early Apr 12 $100 +$64 +64%
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by A Apr 12 $50 +$335 +669%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Apr 11 $50 +$12 +24%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Apr 11 $50 +$28 +56%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Apr 11 $9 −$2 -24%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? Apr 11 $50 −$23 -46%
UFC Fight Night: Renato Moicano vs. Chris Duncan (Lightweight, Main Ca Apr 05 $670 +$482 +72%
Warriors vs. Nuggets Mar 30 $15 −$15 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Israel Adesanya vs. Joe Pyfer (Middleweight, Main Car Mar 29 $59 +$75 +127%
UFC Fight Night: Alexa Grasso vs. Maycee Barber (Women's Flyweight, Ma Mar 29 $99 +$161 +163%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 4AM ET Mar 25 $100 −$99 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on March 25? Mar 24 $7 −$7 -100%
Fight to Go the Distance? Mar 21 $81 −$81 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Michael Page vs. Sam Patterson (Welterweight, Main Ca Mar 21 $17 −$10 -59%
UFC Fight Night: Mason Jones vs. Axel Sola (Lightweight, Prelims) Mar 21 $50 +$41 +82%
O/U 4.5 Rounds Mar 21 $40 −$40 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Roman Dolidze vs. Christian Leroy Duncan (Middleweigh Mar 21 $56 −$56 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on March 20? Mar 20 $100 −$100 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on March 20? Mar 20 $82 −$82 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on March 20? Mar 20 $101 +$31 +31%
Magic vs. Hornets Mar 19 $90 −$90 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on March 20? Mar 19 $36 −$36 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on March 20? Mar 19 $13 −$13 -100%
Lakers vs. Rockets Mar 19 $200 +$43 +22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 0.5 AND Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Urugu BUY 45¢ $60 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 2.5 AND Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain O/U SELL 41¢ $41 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $156 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 2.5 BUY Over 64¢ $101 2h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 2.5 AND Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain O/U BUY 35¢ $36 2h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia O/U 1.5 BUY Over 47¢ $51 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Justin Gaethje 100¢ $555 6d
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car SELL Diego Lopes 55¢ $46 7d
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 60¢ $52 10d
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car SELL Diego Lopes 59¢ $52 10d
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 60¢ $54 13d
UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main SELL Gabriel Bonfim 100¢ $191 14d
UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main BUY Gabriel Bonfim 51¢ $99 14d
UFC Fight Night: Bryce Mitchell vs. Santiago Luna (Bantamweight, Main BUY Santiago Luna 45¢ $70 14d
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Over 45¢ $39 14d
UFC Fight Night: Bruno Silva vs. Édgar Cháirez (Flyweight, Prelims) BUY Bruno Silva 36¢ $38 14d
UFC Fight Night: Bryce Mitchell vs. Santiago Luna (Bantamweight, Main SELL Santiago Luna 47¢ $38 14d
UFC Fight Night: Bryce Mitchell vs. Santiago Luna (Bantamweight, Main BUY Santiago Luna 48¢ $40 15d
UFC Fight Night: Ariane Carnelossi vs. Ketlen Souza (Women's Strawweig BUY Ariane Carnelossi 26¢ $6 15d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 18¢ $102 15d
UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main SELL Belal Muhammad 53¢ $93 16d
UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main BUY Belal Muhammad 55¢ $99 19d
UFC Fight Night: Yuneisy Duben vs. Jeisla Chaves (Women's Flyweight, P BUY Yuneisy Duben 24¢ $28 19d
UFC Fight Night: Sergei Pavlovich vs. Tallison Teixeira (Heavyweight, BUY Tallison Teixeira 18¢ $69 23d
O/U 0.5 Rounds BUY Over 78¢ $114 24d
UFC Fight Night: Malcolm Wellmaker vs. Juan Diaz (Bantamweight, Main C BUY Malcolm Wellmaker 68¢ $36 35d
UFC Fight Night: Arnold Allen vs. Melquizael Costa (Featherweight, Mai SELL Arnold Allen 53¢ $36 35d
UFC Fight Night: Arnold Allen vs. Melquizael Costa (Featherweight, Mai BUY Arnold Allen 55¢ $38 36d
UFC 328: Alexander Volkov vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta (Heavyweight, Main C BUY Waldo Cortes-Acosta 39¢ $70 47d
UFC Fight Night: Carlos Prates vs. Jack Della Maddalena (Welterweight, BUY Carlos Prates 51¢ $1 50d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $59.20 · 288 history records