Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T22:35:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
86 0x8619…3ef5 crypto 728 markets active 1h ago coverage 71d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$139 (+3%) realized +$139 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate75%548W / 180L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day10.5pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8
7 days+$131
14 days+$131
30 days+$131
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 79% −$26
other 21% +$97
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 +19.1% +7.8% 97% 57% +2.0%
≤30d 37 +19.1% +7.8% 97% 57% +2.0%
≤90d 728 -0.4% -9.9% 75% 56% -8.0%
all 728 -0.4% -9.9% 75% 56% -8.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 56% -8.0%
10% -18.5% 41% -16.8%
15% -26.4% 33% -24.9%
20% -33.6% 19% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$5 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

71d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$139
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses548 / 180
Open positions0
Markets (closed)728 / 728
History coverage71d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day10.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 728 Trades
no open positions (32 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $354 +$8 +2%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $21 −$20 -97%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $203 +$47 +23%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $303 +$62 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$2 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 17 $4 +$2 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$3 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$3 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Apr 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Apr 20 $5 +$3 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Apr 20 $5 +$3 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Apr 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Apr 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Apr 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Apr 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Apr 15 $5 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Apr 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Apr 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Apr 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Apr 15 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Apr 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 33¢ $108 53m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 30¢ $102 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL No 70¢ $255 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 68¢ $252 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 6¢ $21 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 73¢ $250 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $203 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 82¢ $365 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $303 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $5 66d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $5 66d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $5 66d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $5 66d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $5 66d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $4 66d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $5 66d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 66d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 66d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $5 66d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 66d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 66d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $4 66d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $5 66d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $4 66d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $5 66d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 66d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $5 66d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 66d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $5 66d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $5 66d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1436 history records