Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T15:21:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

86
0x8617…5fa2
crypto · 880 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
+$1,488 +2%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$1,140 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,140
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)84%
Wins / losses739 / 141
Whale WR (big bets)89%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)880 / 880
History coverage45d
Avg bet$110
Trades / day44.7
Drawdown77%
Kalshi-fit94%
Chart Positions 0 History 880 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$33
7 days−$186
14 days−$36
30 days+$557
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Up 75¢ 0¢ $24 $0 −$24 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Down 75¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 1PM ET Up 66¢ 0¢ $66 $0 −$66 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12PM ET Up 12¢ 0¢ $75 $0 −$75 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 12PM ET Up 58¢ 0¢ $23 $0 −$23 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10AM ET Down 99¢ 0¢ $594 $0 −$594 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Up 38¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11PM ET Down 90¢ 0¢ $45 $0 −$45 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2PM ET Up 37¢ 0¢ $221 $0 −$221 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Up 21¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Up 40¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 30, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Up 66¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 4PM ET Up 93¢ 0¢ $186 $0 −$186 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Up 42¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12AM ET Down 42¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Up 60¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Up 35¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1PM ET Up 31¢ 0¢ $123 $0 −$123 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 6PM ET Down 2¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10AM ET Jun 14 $97 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9AM ET Jun 14 $11 +$2 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8AM ET Jun 14 $130 +$3 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7AM ET Jun 14 $110 +$5 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6AM ET Jun 14 $87 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1AM ET Jun 14 $7 −$2 -35%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12AM ET Jun 14 $105 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10AM ET Jun 13 $54 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6AM ET Jun 13 $198 +$2 +1%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $786 +$14 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 12PM ET Jun 12 $97 +$3 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11AM ET Jun 12 $184 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10AM ET Jun 12 $60 +$1 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8AM ET Jun 12 $200 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8AM ET Jun 12 $300 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 7AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$6 +173%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 12 $599 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4AM ET Jun 12 $157 +$3 +2%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 4AM ET Jun 12 $88 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3AM ET Jun 12 $294 +$6 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3AM ET Jun 12 $198 +$2 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2AM ET Jun 12 $30 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1AM ET Jun 12 $446 +$1 +0%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 Jun 11 $79 +$21 +27%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 4.5 Jun 11 $91 +$9 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $301 +$6 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 11 $10 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 11 $10 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 11 $17 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11AM ET Jun 11 $177 −$58 -33%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9AM ET Jun 11 $734 +$66 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8AM ET Jun 11 $651 +$102 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 4AM ET Jun 11 $98 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4AM ET Jun 11 $99 +$1 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 2AM ET Jun 11 $63 +$1 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 12AM ET Jun 11 $291 +$14 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11PM ET Jun 11 $330 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 7PM ET Jun 11 $487 +$30 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 10 $9 −$1 -10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 6PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4PM ET Jun 10 $297 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3PM ET Jun 10 $213 +$287 +135%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2PM ET Jun 10 $224 −$221 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 10 $7 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1PM ET Jun 10 $123 −$123 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12PM ET Jun 10 $75 −$75 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11AM ET Jun 10 $206 +$246 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10AM ET Jun 10 $594 −$594 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9AM ET Jun 10 $495 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5AM ET Jun 10 $197 +$9 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 95% +$1,063
other 5% +$47
sports 0% +$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $97 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9AM ET SELL Up 47¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $4 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $32 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $98 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $15 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $33 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $10 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $48 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $85 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6AM ET SELL Up 1¢ $0 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6AM ET SELL Up 1¢ $1 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1AM ET SELL Up 45¢ $4 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $7 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $6 10h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $99 10h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $0 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $54 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $198 28h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 98¢ $136 37h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 98¢ $10 37h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 98¢ $69 37h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 98¢ $60 37h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 98¢ $10 37h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 98¢ $8 37h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 99¢ $493 37h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 82 +2.7% -7.1% 83% 15% -10.7%
≤30d 509 -3.8% -13.0% 83% 21% -8.9%
≤90d 880 -2.2% -11.5% 84% 22% -8.5%
all 880 -2.2% -11.5% 84% 22% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover44.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.5% 22% -8.5%
10% ← realistic here -20.0% 13% -17.2%
15% -27.7% 8% -25.2%
20% -34.8% 5% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2856 history records