Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T13:06:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

86
0x8616…6ae1
other · 51 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
+$0 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$0 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses16 / 34
Open positions1
Markets (closed)50 / 51
History coverage253d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%
Chart Positions 1 History 50 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 3¢ 9¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+187%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $60 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 14 $1 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $59 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 13 $160 −$1 -1%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 10 $41 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $46 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $4 $0 +3%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $3 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $69 +$1 +2%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 05 $54 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $60 $0 +0%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? Dec 12 $6 +$1 +25%
Will the Chicago Bulls win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 11 $14 $0 +0%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $6 $0 +0%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $12 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 25 $9 $0 +0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Nov 25 $10 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 25 $12 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 25 $14 −$1 -7%
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? Nov 21 $10 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-29? Nov 20 $10 $0 +0%
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? Nov 20 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? Nov 20 $12 $0 -3%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-11-22? Nov 15 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 24 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall in 2025? Oct 24 $12 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Oct 23 $20 $0 +1%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Oct 23 $5 $0 +0%
Will Vlad Gheorghe be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Oct 23 $30 $0 -0%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 22 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 22 $8 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025? Oct 22 $13 $0 +1%
Will Solana reach $300 in October? Oct 19 $13 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $270 in October? Oct 18 $2 −$1 -30%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 18 $12 $0 +0%
Will Curtis Sliwa win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 18 $25 $0 +0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 17 $12 $0 +0%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.6% in 2025? Oct 17 $13 $0 +0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 14 $13 $0 +0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Oct 13 $13 $0 +1%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in 2025? Oct 13 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 13 $13 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $17,000 by December 31? Oct 07 $13 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Oct 07 $11 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 06 $13 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Kazakhstan? Oct 06 $13 $0 +0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 05 $23 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Oct 05 $2 $0 +2%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 05 $25 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $95k in October? Oct 04 $25 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 46% $0
other 20% +$1
politics 15% −$1
sports 8% $0
crypto 7% −$1
culture 2% $0
finance 1% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 84¢ $19 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 84¢ $40 3h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 84¢ $60 3h
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 6h
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 10h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $4 16h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 16h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 19h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 19h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $13 33h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $47 33h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $60 35h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $49 41h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $6 41h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $55 45h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 57¢ $11 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 57¢ $48 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 57¢ $1 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $61 2d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 74¢ $41 3d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 74¢ $41 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 55¢ $40 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 55¢ $40 5d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 5d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 5d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 5d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $4 5d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $46 6d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $4 6d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $42 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.3% -9.2% 14% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 11 +0.4% -9.2% 27% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 11 +0.4% -9.2% 27% 0% -9.5%
all 50 -0.1% -9.6% 32% 2% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 2% -9.5%
10% -18.3% 2% -18.2%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.05 · official $0.00 (match) · 166 history records