Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T23:10:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
86 0x860e…e951 crypto 272 markets active 2h ago coverage 71d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$89 (-0%) realized −$84 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate98%265W / 5L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$227per market
Trades / day6.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$395now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$20
14 days+$48
30 days+$51
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$114
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 +0.5% -9.1% 100% 0% -9.1%
≤30d 94 +0.3% -9.2% 99% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 270 +0.8% -8.8% 98% 0% -9.7%
all 270 +0.8% -8.8% 98% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.8% 0% -9.7%
10% -17.5% 0% -18.3%
15% -25.5% 0% -26.2%
20% -32.8% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$75 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

71d coverage
Net worth$395
Realized−$84
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)98%
Wins / losses265 / 5
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)270 / 272
History coverage71d
Avg bet$227
Trades / day6.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 270 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $1,800 on June 18? No 99¢ 98¢ $200 $198 −$2 (-1%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 on June 18? No 99¢ 97¢ $200 $197 −$3 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 on June 17? Jun 18 $100 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $65 on June 17? Jun 18 $100 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $80 on June 17? Jun 18 $130 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $1,850 on June 17? Jun 18 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on June 17? Jun 17 $430 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,700 on June 16? Jun 17 $200 +$2 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $1,900 on June 16? Jun 17 $200 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $1,950 on June 15? Jun 16 $200 +$2 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,700 on June 15? Jun 16 $200 +$2 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 15? Jun 15 $200 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 15? Jun 15 $223 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $75 on June 14? Jun 15 $200 +$4 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 14? Jun 15 $200 +$2 +1%
Will Solana reach $75 on June 13? Jun 14 $100 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $1,800 on June 13? Jun 14 $316 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 13? Jun 13 $400 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,550 on June 12? Jun 13 $414 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 12? Jun 12 $200 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 12? Jun 12 $200 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $60 on June 11? Jun 12 $110 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $75 on June 11? Jun 12 $300 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 11? Jun 11 $400 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 10? Jun 11 $300 +$2 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 on June 10? Jun 11 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 10? Jun 10 $200 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 10? Jun 10 $200 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 9? Jun 10 $200 +$2 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 9? Jun 10 $200 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on June 8? Jun 09 $200 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 8? Jun 09 $200 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 7? Jun 08 $400 +$3 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 7? Jun 07 $400 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,450 on June 6? Jun 07 $190 +$5 +3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 6? Jun 07 $200 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 5? Jun 06 $190 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,000 on June 5? Jun 06 $200 +$3 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $180 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $180 +$2 +1%
Will Solana dip to $60 on June 4? Jun 05 $200 +$2 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 4? Jun 05 $185 +$4 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 4? Jun 04 $200 +$2 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 4? Jun 04 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on June 4? Jun 04 $80 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $80 on June 3? Jun 04 $380 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on June 3? Jun 03 $180 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on June 3? Jun 03 $200 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 2? Jun 03 $370 +$4 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $375 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 2? Jun 02 $300 −$32 -11%
Will Bitcoin dip to $67,000 on June 1? Jun 02 $200 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ethereum reach $1,800 on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $200 1h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $100 1h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $100 1h
Will Solana reach $80 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $130 24h
Will Solana dip to $65 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $100 24h
Will Ethereum reach $1,850 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $100 24h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $100 24h
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $430 34h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,700 on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $100 2d
Will Ethereum reach $1,900 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $100 2d
Will Ethereum reach $1,900 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $100 2d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,700 on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $100 2d
Will Ethereum reach $1,950 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $100 3d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,700 on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $100 3d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,700 on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $100 3d
Will Ethereum reach $1,950 on June 15? BUY No 98¢ $100 3d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 15? BUY Yes 100¢ $23 3d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 15? BUY Yes 100¢ $200 3d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $200 3d
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $200 4d
Will Solana reach $75 on June 14? BUY No 98¢ $100 4d
Will Solana reach $75 on June 14? BUY No 98¢ $100 4d
Will Ethereum reach $1,800 on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $116 5d
Will Ethereum reach $1,800 on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $200 5d
Will Solana reach $75 on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $100 5d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $400 5d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,550 on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $14 6d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,550 on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $200 6d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,550 on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $200 6d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $200 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $395.14 · official $395.14 (match) · 703 history records