Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T07:10:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
86 0x860d…3c72 sports 1333 markets active 1h ago coverage 222d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 221d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$3,416 (+3%) realized +$3,515 · open −$99
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate53%711W / 622L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown94%max
Avg bet$93per market
Trades / day11.9pace
Fees−$332est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$2,700now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$398
7 days−$552
14 days+$608
30 days+$1,296
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 89% +$1,871
other 9% +$1,307
tech 1% −$4
politics 1% +$50
culture 0% +$80
finance 0% −$8
world 0% +$12
weather 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-13.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 56 -37.0% -43.0% 41% 39% -20.3%
≤30d 186 -8.3% -17.1% 55% 53% -3.1%
≤90d 523 -10.6% -19.2% 50% 47% -8.0%
all 1333 -4.8% -13.8% 53% 50% -7.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.8% 50% -7.6%
10% -22.1% 40% -16.4%
15% -29.6% 33% -24.5%
20% -36.5% 29% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +12% → late -21% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$61 vs −$66 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

222d coverage
Net worth$2,700
Realized+$3,515
Unrealized−$99
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses711 / 622
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$332
Open positions19
Markets (closed)1333 / 1333
History coverage222d ⚠
Avg bet$93
Trades / day11.9
Drawdown94%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 19 History 1333 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 73¢ 74¢ $794 $797 +$3 (+0%)
Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 70¢ 68¢ $442 $428 −$13 (-3%)
Will Austria win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 82¢ 81¢ $415 $412 −$3 (-1%)
Will USA reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 71¢ 64¢ $296 $263 −$32 (-11%)
Will GameStop acquire eBay? No 85¢ 84¢ $170 $169 −$1 (-1%)
Katy Perry and Justin Trudeau breakup before August? No 84¢ 86¢ $84 $86 +$2 (+3%)
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs RUSTEC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Stage Bebop 50¢ 52¢ $80 $82 +$2 (+3%)
Will ground beef hit $10 per pound in 2026? No 82¢ 66¢ $89 $72 −$17 (-19%)
Will Brad Bradford win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election? No 85¢ 82¢ $66 $64 −$2 (-3%)
Katy Perry and Justin Trudeau engaged by end of 2026? No 73¢ 63¢ $73 $63 −$10 (-14%)
Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027? Yes 90¢ 93¢ $57 $59 +$2 (+3%)
Will USA reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 53¢ 33¢ $86 $53 −$32 (-38%)
Will Ecuador reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 60¢ 62¢ $39 $40 +$1 (+2%)
Will USD/CAD hit 1.70 (High) in 2026? No 93¢ 94¢ $38 $38 +$0 (+1%)
Will ground beef hit $8 per pound in 2026? No 40¢ 43¢ $19 $20 +$1 (+7%)
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Series 7 Playoffs SPARTA 44¢ 42¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-4%)
Zendaya confirmed pregnant by June 30? No 95¢ 99¢ $14 $15 +$1 (+4%)
Will USD/CAD hit 1.45 (High) in 2026? No 54¢ 56¢ $14 $15 +$0 (+3%)
Will Kareem Allam win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election? No 59¢ 45¢ $6 $4 −$1 (-24%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 452 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Rizo Velovic win Survivor season 49? Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Pistons vs. Grizzlies Jun 15 $35 −$35 -100%
Knicks vs. Bulls Jun 15 $94 −$94 -100%
Predators vs. Flyers Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2025 World Series? Jun 15 $42 −$42 -100%
76ers vs. Bulls Jun 15 $46 −$46 -100%
Blue Jays vs. Dodgers Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Red Wings vs. Kings Jun 15 $71 −$71 -100%
Bears vs. Bengals Jun 15 $41 −$41 -100%
Rangers vs. Kraken Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Stars vs. Panthers Jun 15 $79 −$79 -100%
Will “The Witcher: Season 4” be the top global Netflix show this week? Jun 15 $40 −$40 -100%
Panthers vs. Packers Jun 15 $78 −$78 -100%
Blackhawks vs. Kraken Jun 15 $41 −$41 -100%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Jun 15 $54 −$54 -100%
Spread: Senators (-1.5) Jun 15 $27 −$27 -100%
Chiefs vs. Bills Jun 15 $74 −$74 -100%
Spread: Islanders (-1.5) Jun 15 $17 −$17 -100%
Spread: Golden Knights (-1.5) Jun 15 $31 −$31 -100%
Spread: Hurricanes (-2.5) Jun 15 $12 +$14 +114%
Will Anthropic’s market cap be 1.8T or greater at market close on IPO Jun 15 $53 +$11 +21%
Call of Duty: Vancouver Surge vs Paris Gentle Mates (BO5) - Call of Du Jun 15 $25 +$5 +21%
Will Tommy Fleetwood win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? Jun 15 $631 +$100 +16%
Washington Mystics vs. New York Liberty Jun 14 $264 +$53 +20%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 14 $22 +$12 +56%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 14 $117 +$123 +105%
Call of Duty: Los Angeles Thieves vs G2 Minnesota (BO5) - Call of Duty Jun 14 $150 +$39 +26%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Jun 14 $69 −$68 -98%
Indiana Fever vs. Connecticut Sun Jun 14 $12 +$3 +23%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $21 +$37 +172%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 13 $71 +$69 +97%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $14 −$14 -99%
Golden State Valkyries vs. Seattle Storm Jun 13 $133 +$38 +29%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $18 −$17 -98%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 13 $91 +$67 +73%
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group St Jun 12 $132 +$76 +58%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 12 $34 −$33 -100%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Canada O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $16 −$15 -98%
Las Vegas Aces vs. PortlandFire Jun 12 $624 +$133 +21%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $256 +$79 +31%
Chicago Sky vs. Indiana Fever Jun 12 $31 +$8 +25%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 12 $110 −$108 -99%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 12 $63 +$2 +2%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 11 $161 +$113 +70%
Counter-Strike: Marsborne vs F5 Esports (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playoffs Jun 11 $4 −$4 -97%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $11 −$11 -98%
Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5) Jun 11 $21 −$21 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 213.5 Jun 11 $27 +$36 +134%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $346 −$335 -97%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 11 $49 −$48 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will ground beef hit $10 per pound in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $65 1h
Will ground beef hit $10 per pound in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $25 1h
Will Anthropic’s market cap be 1.8T or greater at market close on IPO SELL No 65¢ $64 4h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se BUY SPARTA 45¢ $7 5h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se BUY SPARTA 44¢ $13 5h
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs RUSTEC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Sta BUY Bebop 50¢ $81 5h
Spread: Hurricanes (-2.5) BUY Hurricanes 46¢ $12 5h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 SELL Yes 70¢ $35 9h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY Yes 45¢ $20 10h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY Yes 45¢ $2 10h
Washington Mystics vs. New York Liberty BUY New York Liberty 81¢ $106 11h
Washington Mystics vs. New York Liberty BUY New York Liberty 84¢ $13 12h
Washington Mystics vs. New York Liberty BUY New York Liberty 84¢ $13 12h
Washington Mystics vs. New York Liberty BUY New York Liberty 84¢ $118 12h
Call of Duty: Vancouver Surge vs Paris Gentle Mates (BO5) - Call of Du BUY Paris Gentle Mates 82¢ $25 13h
Will Tommy Fleetwood win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? BUY No 86¢ $86 16h
Will Tommy Fleetwood win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? BUY No 86¢ $519 17h
Will Tommy Fleetwood win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? BUY No 86¢ $26 17h
Will Anthropic’s market cap be 1.8T or greater at market close on IPO BUY No 52¢ $53 25h
Washington Mystics vs. New York Liberty BUY New York Liberty 84¢ $14 30h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs BUY Walczaki 47¢ $69 30h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 1.5 BUY Under 36¢ $21 32h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $14 34h
Will USA reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 68¢ $51 46h
Will USA reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 68¢ $68 2d
Will USA reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 68¢ $47 2d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Los Angeles Angels 48¢ $51 2d
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 50¢ $71 2d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Los Angeles Angels 48¢ $67 2d
Indiana Fever vs. Connecticut Sun BUY Indiana Fever 81¢ $12 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,700.17 · official $2,700.22 (match) · 3500 history records