Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T21:56:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
86 0x8608…978d other 11 markets active 2h ago coverage 251d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$993 (-49%) realized −$1,001 · open +$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -67% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -70% what you keep after slip
Net edge-70%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate20%2W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$186per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$138now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$151
7 days+$41
14 days−$292
30 days−$292
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 37% −$85
tech 30% −$614
other 18% −$32
politics 13% −$233
economics 1% −$24
world 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-69.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -52.5% -57.1% 25% 25% -3.9%
≤30d 7 -52.4% -56.9% 29% 29% -31.7%
≤90d 7 -52.4% -56.9% 29% 29% -31.7%
all 10 -66.7% -69.8% 20% 20% -57.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -69.8% 20% -57.3%
10% -72.7% 20% -61.4%
15% -75.4% 20% -65.1%
20% -77.8% 10% -68.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 82% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -24% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -67% · $-wt -53% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$173 vs −$169 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.26 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

251d coverage
Net worth$138
Realized−$1,001
Unrealized+$8
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses2 / 8
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions1
Markets (closed)10 / 11
History coverage251d
Avg bet$186
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $130 $138 +$8 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 23 $389 +$285 +73%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 22 $160 −$133 -83%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $101 −$100 -99%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $374 −$370 -99%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 12 $25 −$24 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $139 +$61 +44%
Will Donald Trump be the #1 searched person on Google this year? Oct 15 $610 −$610 -100%
Will Sam Altman be the #1 searched person on Google this year? Oct 15 $4 −$4 -100%
French election called by October 31? Oct 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $137.50 · official $137.50 (match) · 19 history records