Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T08:18:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
86 0x8604…964a world 77 markets active 2h ago coverage 491d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$7 (-0%) realized −$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate33%25W / 51L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days+$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 43% +$3
sports 20% −$9
politics 17% +$2
other 16% −$1
finance 2% −$1
economics 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +3.0% -6.8% 67% 17% -9.7%
≤30d 29 +0.8% -8.8% 28% 10% -9.6%
≤90d 75 -0.4% -9.9% 33% 7% -9.3%
all 76 -1.7% -11.1% 33% 7% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.1% 7% -9.7%
10% -19.6% 0% -18.4%
15% -27.4% 0% -26.3%
20% -34.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

491d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses25 / 51
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)76 / 77
History coverage491d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 76 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-86%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 24 $128 $0 +0%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $49 $0 +0%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 23 $47 −$1 -2%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 22 $2 $0 +20%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $12 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $43 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 15 $8 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 15 $16 +$2 +11%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $41 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $67 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $42 −$1 -1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $3 $0 +15%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $2 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 13 $46 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 12 $41 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $46 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $17 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $3 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 08 $45 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $50 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $24 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 07 $3 $0 -3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 05 $41 $0 +1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 04 $45 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 31 $4 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $1 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 29 $42 −$1 -2%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 26 $6 $0 -4%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 25 $11 −$1 -10%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 24 $49 −$1 -2%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 23 $100 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 18 $9 +$2 +17%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 18 $41 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 16 $39 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 15 $44 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 15 $44 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 14 $25 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $247 +$3 +1%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 25 $20 $0 +2%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $37 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $40 $0 -0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 24 $73 +$1 +1%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 23 $71 $0 -0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $55 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 21 $5 $0 -1%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15? Apr 21 $23 +$1 +2%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 21 $28 +$1 +2%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $35 $0 +0%
Will Richard Van De Water win The Bachelorette Season 22? Apr 20 $33 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $47 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $47 1h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $7 8h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $35 8h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $42 12h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 14¢ $7 18h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 14¢ $7 20h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $25 24h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $17 24h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $42 28h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $46 30h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 83¢ $47 31h
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $4 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $35 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $39 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $12 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $12 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $39 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $5 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $43 6d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 2¢ $3 7d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 7d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $6 8d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $2 8d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $6 8d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 39¢ $18 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 35¢ $16 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $41 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 320 history records