Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T22:21:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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86 0x8604…cb8f crypto 170 markets active 1h ago coverage 169d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialistFresh edge
Total PnL −$124 (-3%) realized −$104 · open −$20
Gross ROI / mkt +26% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +14% what you keep after slip
Net edge+14%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate66%104W / 54L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$240now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$35
14 days+$58
30 days+$45
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 45% −$218
sports 31% −$15
other 14% +$22
world 10% +$28
finance 1% −$20
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)+14.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +702.7% +626.3% 100% 67% +47.9%
≤30d 16 +249.1% +215.9% 62% 31% +7.7%
≤90d 115 +42.3% +28.8% 70% 28% -9.6%
all 158 +26.5% +14.5% 66% 28% -13.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +14.5% 28% -13.6%
10% +3.5% 20% -21.9%
15% -6.5% 18% -29.4%
20% -15.6% 14% -36.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
56% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +27% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late +62% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$14 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

169d coverage
Net worth$240
Realized−$104
Unrealized−$20
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses104 / 54
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions12
Markets (closed)158 / 170
History coverage169d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 158 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 2 Spain? No 96¢ 95¢ $55 $55 −$0 (-0%)
Exact Score: Cabo Verde 2 - 0 Saudi Arabia? No 93¢ 94¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+2%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 21¢ $29 $38 +$9 (+30%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ $17 $28 +$11 (+66%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $30 $24 −$6 (-21%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $12 $13 +$1 (+11%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $17 $11 −$6 (-34%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-8%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $9 $8 −$1 (-12%)
Will Khamzat Chimaev be the UFC Middleweight Champion on December 31, 2026? Yes 81¢ 18¢ $10 $2 −$8 (-78%)
Will ground beef hit $7 per pound in 2026? Yes 98¢ 71¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-28%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? Yes 80¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 26 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 3 France? Jun 26 $30 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner Jun 21 $31 +$9 +30%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) Jun 20 $24 +$26 +108%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $46 +$6 +12%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $20 −$20 -99%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $20 +$12 +58%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $191 +$31 +16%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $10 −$9 -92%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 0 Poland? Jun 09 $30 $0 +0%
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027? Jun 09 $10 $0 -0%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 1 Tunisia? Jun 06 $21 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Georgia 0 - 0 Bahrain? Jun 05 $20 $0 +1%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 31 $5 $0 +2%
Exact Score: Chelsea FC 3 - 1 Tottenham Hotspur FC? May 19 $40 +$2 +4%
Exact Score: Chelsea FC 2 - 2 Tottenham Hotspur FC? May 19 $10 +$1 +6%
Will Rue Bennett die in Euphoria: Season 3? May 19 $12 −$12 -100%
Exact Score: Chengdu Rongcheng FC 3 - 1 Shanghai Haigang FC? May 19 $60 +$1 +2%
Arsenal FC vs. Burnley FC: O/U 0.5 May 18 $65 +$1 +2%
Pooh Shiesty charged by May 31? May 16 $1 $0 +9%
UFC 328: Yaroslav Amosov vs. Joel Álvarez (Welterweight, Prelims) May 10 $25 +$15 +59%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? May 08 $47 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET May 05 $16 +$5 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET May 05 $15 −$15 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET May 05 $20 $0 +1%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 4? May 05 $10 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET May 04 $2 −$2 -89%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET May 04 $4 +$1 +19%
XRP Up or Down - May 4, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET May 04 $4 +$1 +19%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET May 04 $20 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - May 4, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET May 04 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET May 04 $20 +$1 +3%
Solana Up or Down - May 4, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET May 04 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET May 04 $30 −$30 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 4, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET May 04 $20 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET May 04 $20 $0 +2%
Aston Villa FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: O/U 4.5 May 03 $110 +$1 +1%
Aston Villa FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: O/U 3.5 May 03 $15 +$2 +13%
Aston Villa FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: O/U 2.5 May 03 $10 −$10 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 3, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET May 03 $50 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 3, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET May 03 $30 +$1 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 3, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET May 03 $50 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 3, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET May 03 $15 −$12 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET May 03 $30 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 3, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET May 03 $60 −$2 -3%
Solana Up or Down - May 3, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET May 03 $50 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - April 30, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET May 03 $16 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - April 30, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET May 03 $9 +$1 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 2 Spain? BUY No 96¢ $55 1h
Exact Score: Cabo Verde 2 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY No 93¢ $50 1h
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 3 France? BUY No 100¢ $30 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner SELL FURIA 46¢ $36 5d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner SELL FURIA 46¢ $3 5d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner BUY FURIA 34¢ $10 5d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner BUY FURIA 35¢ $20 5d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner SELL Vitality 82¢ $20 7d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Vitality 61¢ $5 7d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Vitality 59¢ $10 7d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner SELL Team Falcons 21¢ $25 7d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner SELL Team Falcons 23¢ $4 7d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons $10 7d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 40¢ $2 7d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 41¢ $2 7d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 42¢ $2 7d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner SELL Team Falcons 34¢ $21 7d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 37¢ $2 7d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 37¢ $2 7d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 36¢ $10 7d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 32¢ $10 7d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 32¢ $10 7d
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) BUY Team Falcons 41¢ $0 7d
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) BUY Team Falcons 41¢ $1 7d
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) BUY Team Falcons 41¢ $1 7d
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) BUY Team Falcons 43¢ $1 7d
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) BUY Team Falcons 43¢ $1 7d
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) BUY Team Falcons 44¢ $2 7d
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) BUY Team Falcons 45¢ $2 7d
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) BUY Team Falcons 48¢ $2 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $240.23 · official $240.09 (match) · 681 history records