Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T02:40:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0

score

86 0x8603…fb04 other 18 markets active 1h ago coverage 31d

TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$5,510 (+48%) realized +$5,633 · open −$123

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip

Net edge-21%after slip

Net WR38%break-even

Win rate38%5W / 8L

Drawdown12%max

Avg bet$643per market

Trades / day1.0pace

Fees−$23est.

Kalshi-fit22%portable

Net worth$861now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days$0

7 days+$5,176

14 days+$5,285

30 days+$5,264

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +38%

net ROI/market (all)-17.8%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	9	-5.1%	-14.1%	33%	33%	+36.8%
≤30d	12	-16.9%	-24.8%	33%	33%	+36.0%
≤90d	13	-9.2%	-17.8%	38%	38%	+36.3%
all	13	-9.2%	-17.8%	38%	38%	+36.3%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover1.0 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-17.8%	38%	+36.3%
10%	-25.7%	38%	+23.2%
15%	-32.9%	31%	+11.3%
20%	-39.5%	23%	+0.4%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 90% · top 2 97% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +51% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -9% · $-wt +51% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -23% → late +2% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$1,377 vs −$192 · ×7.17 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×4.48 per $1 lost it wins $4.48

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

31d coverage

Net worth$861

Realized+$5,633

Unrealized−$123

Win rate (resolved)38%

Wins / losses5 / 8

Est. fees paid−$23

Open positions5

Markets (closed)13 / 18

History coverage31d

Avg bet$643

Trades / day1.0

Drawdown12%

Kalshi-fit22%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 5 History 13 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Austria reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	32¢	34¢	$184	$195	+$11 (+6%)
Will Canada reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	55¢	50¢	$200	$184	−$16 (-8%)
Will Morocco reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	58¢	52¢	$200	$178	−$22 (-11%)
Will South Korea reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	59¢	52¢	$200	$176	−$24 (-12%)
Will Uruguay reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	48¢	30¢	$200	$128	−$72 (-36%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 15	$909	−$715	-79%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 15	$6,964	+$6,176	+89%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw?	Jun 14	$710	−$696	-98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 13	$507	+$472	+93%
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 13	$505	−$17	-4%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 13	$73	+$19	+26%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 13	$103	−$9	-9%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car	Jun 13	$314	−$28	-9%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 13	$48	−$25	-53%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?	Jun 11	$303	+$132	+44%
Will Poland win on 2026-05-31?	Jun 11	$23	−$23	-100%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League?	May 30	$21	−$21	-98%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs Aurora (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs	May 19	$101	+$84	+83%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Austria reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	32¢	$188	1h
Will Uruguay reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	48¢	$203	1h
Will Morocco reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	58¢	$203	1h
Will South Korea reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	59¢	$202	1h
Will Canada reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	55¢	$203	1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	SELL Yes	100¢	$12,856	3d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	51¢	$3,312	4d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	51¢	$3,349	4d
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw?	BUY Yes	33¢	$710	4d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	57¢	$707	4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	SELL Yes	100¢	$979	5d
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	SELL Yes	66¢	$488	6d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14?	SELL Yes	56¢	$194	6d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	0¢	$92	6d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	5¢	$93	6d
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car	SELL Diego Lopes	56¢	$286	6d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	SELL Yes	50¢	$284	6d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	0¢	$22	6d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	0¢	$48	8d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	0¢	$73	8d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	5¢	$103	8d
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car	BUY Diego Lopes	60¢	$314	8d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?	BUY Yes	69¢	$303	8d
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	67¢	$505	8d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	52¢	$304	8d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	57¢	$203	8d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	BUY Yes	51¢	$507	8d
Will Poland win on 2026-05-31?	BUY Yes	47¢	$23	19d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League?	BUY Yes	48¢	$21	19d
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs Aurora (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs	BUY Aurora	54¢	$101	31d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $860.64 · official $860.64 (match) · 37 history records