Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T15:22:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

86
0x8600…aae8
sports · 1272 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$99 -2%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$171 · open −$2
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$10
Realized−$171
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses596 / 670
Est. fees paid−$62
Open positions6
Markets (closed)1266 / 1272
History coverage105d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day20.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%
Chart Positions 6 History 1266 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days−$12
14 days−$12
30 days−$151
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5 Over 53¢ 29¢ $6 $3 −$3 (-45%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $2 +$1 (+50%)
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Curaçao? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Curaçao? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Curaçao? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 South Africa? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 South Africa? Yes 17¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Yes 42¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? Yes 19¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Morocco? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 0 Czechia? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Morocco? Yes 16¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Exact Score: Haiti 1 - 2 Scotland? Yes 13¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 2 Türkiye? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 2 Scotland? Yes 15¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 1 Türkiye? Yes 14¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Exact Score: Haiti 1 - 1 Scotland? Yes 13¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Yes 18¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Yes 13¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 2 Switzerland? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland? Yes 16¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 1 Türkiye? Yes 13¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 1 Czechia? Yes 16¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 1 Türkiye? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 1 Türkiye? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 2 Türkiye? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Haiti 1 - 2 Scotland? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Haiti 1 - 1 Scotland? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 2 Scotland? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Morocco? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Morocco? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -98%
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $2 +$10 +510%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 0 Czechia? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 1 Czechia? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $1 +$5 +510%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 South Africa? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Houston Astros vs. Texas Rangers May 29 $6 −$6 -100%
Houston Astros vs. Chicago Cubs May 29 $7 −$7 -100%
Minnesota Twins vs. Boston Red Sox May 29 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-27? May 29 $6 −$6 -100%
Crystal Palace FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 May 29 $6 −$6 -100%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 219.5 May 29 $7 −$7 -100%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Philadelphia Phillies May 29 $7 −$7 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants May 29 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-24? May 29 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2026-05-24? May 29 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Parma Calcio 1913 win on 2026-05-24? May 29 $4 −$4 -100%
Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers May 29 $4 −$4 -100%
Atlanta Dream vs. Minnesota Lynx: O/U 166.5 May 29 $4 −$4 -100%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Mets May 29 $4 −$4 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) May 29 $4 −$4 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. Boston Red Sox May 29 $6 −$6 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) May 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) May 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Miami Marlins vs. Toronto Blue Jays May 29 $6 −$6 -100%
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-05-24? May 29 $4 −$4 -100%
Houston Astros vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 7.5 May 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Avalanche vs. Golden Knights May 29 $4 −$4 -100%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 217.5 May 29 $7 −$7 -100%
Will US Lecce win on 2026-05-24? May 29 $7 −$7 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants May 29 $7 −$7 -100%
Miami Marlins vs. Toronto Blue Jays May 29 $7 −$7 -100%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 29 $13 −$6 -46%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) May 29 $7 −$7 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Milwaukee Brewers May 29 $7 −$7 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 78% −$163
other 22% −$4
world 0% −$6
crypto 0% −$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Curaçao? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Curaçao? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? SELL Yes 15¢ $2 1h
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Curaçao? SELL Yes 9¢ $2 1h
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Curaçao? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Curaçao? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Curaçao? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 2h
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Curaçao? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 2h
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 2h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 2h
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 1 Türkiye? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 20h
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 1 Türkiye? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 20h
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 2 Türkiye? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 20h
Exact Score: Haiti 1 - 2 Scotland? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 33h
Exact Score: Haiti 1 - 1 Scotland? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 33h
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 2 Scotland? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 33h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 33h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 33h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Morocco? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 33h
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 34h
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 2 Switzerland? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 34h
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 34h
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 34h
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 2d
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 2d
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -39.0% -44.8% 10% 10% -45.0%
≤30d 253 -10.5% -19.1% 46% 45% -18.2%
≤90d 1238 -1.2% -10.6% 47% 46% -11.9%
all 1266 -1.4% -10.8% 47% 46% -12.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover20.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.8% 46% -12.4%
10% ← realistic here -19.3% 44% -20.8%
15% -27.1% 42% -28.4%
20% -34.3% 38% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.96 · official $9.96 (match) · 2835 history records