Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T07:59:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

85
0x85fb…24cd
crypto · 17 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$5 -16%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$7 · open −$3
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$7
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses6 / 10
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)16 / 17
History coverage1d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day32.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%
Chart Positions 1 History 16 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$7
14 days−$7
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Yes 58¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Up 13¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Down 34¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Down 4¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Down 28¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Down 36¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Up 28¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Up 33¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Down 34¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$2 +178%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $2 $0 -1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$2 +178%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$2 +195%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 13 $6 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 13 $6 −$6 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 85% −$7
other 9% −$3
sports 6% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $2 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $1 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $3 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $1 31m
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 52¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET SELL Up 17¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET SELL Up 36¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET SELL Up 67¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $1 11h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 51¢ $2 14h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $3 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $1 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $1 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $3 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $1 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $3 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $1 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET SELL Up 42¢ $5 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $5 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $1 16h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-24.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -16.3% -24.3% 38% 25% -33.2%
≤30d 16 -16.3% -24.3% 38% 25% -33.2%
≤90d 16 -16.3% -24.3% 38% 25% -33.2%
all 16 -16.3% -24.3% 38% 25% -33.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover32.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -24.3% 25% -33.2%
10% ← realistic here -31.5% 19% -39.6%
15% -38.2% 19% -45.4%
20% -44.2% 19% -50.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 32 history records