Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T00:18:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
85 0x85f4…85ef politics 33 markets active 2h ago coverage 267d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate41%13W / 19L
Drawdown26%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$32now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 35% +$2
politics 32% $0
other 25% $0
sports 5% $0
tech 3% $0
culture 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -2.3% -11.6% 40% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 9 -0.2% -9.7% 56% 0% -8.5%
≤90d 9 -0.2% -9.7% 56% 0% -8.5%
all 32 +0.5% -9.1% 41% 3% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.1% 3% -9.1%
10% -17.8% 0% -17.8%
15% -25.7% 0% -25.7%
20% -33.0% 0% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 50% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×2.23 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.63 per $1 lost it wins $2.63
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

267d coverage
Net worth$32
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses13 / 19
Open positions1
Markets (closed)32 / 33
History coverage267d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown26%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? No 93¢ 92¢ $33 $32 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 21 $5 $0 -3%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 20 $21 $0 +0%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $4 $0 -9%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $33 $0 -1%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $36 +$1 +2%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 26 $33 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $32 +$1 +4%
Will Alberta join the US? May 25 $31 $0 +1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 25 $23 +$1 +5%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 22 $2 $0 +3%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 10 $26 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Joe Exotic "The Tiger King" in 2025? Oct 09 $25 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 09 $25 $0 +0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 08 $3 $0 +2%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 National League Championsh Oct 08 $25 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 08 $23 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 08 $2 $0 +3%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 07 $2 $0 +0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 07 $1 $0 -0%
Will Trump deport 1,750,000-2,000,000 people? Oct 07 $26 $0 +0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Oct 06 $19 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025? Oct 06 $34 $0 +0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 05 $6 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 05 $7 +$1 +11%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 05 $20 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 05 $25 $0 -1%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Oct 01 $9 $0 -2%
US government shutdown by October 1? Oct 01 $18 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on December 31? Sep 30 $16 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Daniel Penny in 2025? Sep 30 $26 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Sep 29 $16 $0 +0%
Will ANO win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Sep 29 $26 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 93¢ $33 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 39h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 39h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 39h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 39h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 39h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 39h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 39h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 39h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 39h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 39h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 39h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 47h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 47h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 47h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $1 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $19 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $21 2d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 10¢ $4 3d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 11¢ $4 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $22 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $11 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $30 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $4 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $37 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $36 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $12 27d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $21 27d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $33 27d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 87¢ $14 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.20 · official $32.20 (match) · 120 history records