Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T00:36:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
85 0x85ee…a64a politics 310 markets active 0h ago coverage 87d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$105 (+1%) realized +$161 · open −$56
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +0% what you keep after slip
Net edge+0%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate54%129W / 108L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day9.9pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$2,462now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$71
7 days+$140
14 days+$450
30 days+$500
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 42% +$455
other 22% −$228
sports 19% −$32
culture 8% +$73
world 5% −$207
economics 3% +$4
tech 1% +$3
crypto 0% +$40
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)+8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 +42.2% +28.7% 69% 23% +0.8%
≤30d 112 +50.3% +36.0% 62% 27% +0.9%
≤90d 237 +20.3% +8.8% 54% 27% -8.3%
all 237 +20.3% +8.8% 54% 27% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +8.8% 27% -8.3%
10% -1.6% 20% -17.1%
15% -11.1% 18% -25.1%
20% -19.8% 16% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
48% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +20% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late +47% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$15 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

87d coverage
Net worth$2,462
Realized+$161
Unrealized−$56
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses129 / 108
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions73
Markets (closed)237 / 310
History coverage87d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day9.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 73 History 237 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Alexandru Nazare be the next Prime Minister of Romania? No 80¢ 81¢ $435 $442 +$8 (+2%)
Will Lucian Isar be the next Prime Minister of Romania? No 88¢ 100¢ $97 $110 +$13 (+14%)
Will Eugen Tomac be the next Prime Minister of Romania? No 73¢ 100¢ $79 $108 +$29 (+37%)
Will Vasile Dîncu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? No 88¢ 100¢ $88 $100 +$12 (+14%)
Will the announcers say "Captain" during the Japan vs Sweden FIFA World Cup Match? Yes 96¢ 100¢ $96 $100 +$4 (+4%)
Will the announcers say "Visa" during the Japan vs Sweden FIFA World Cup Match? Yes 97¢ 100¢ $97 $100 +$2 (+3%)
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? No 67¢ 95¢ $67 $95 +$28 (+42%)
Will the announcers say "Crossbar" during the Japan vs Sweden FIFA World Cup Match? No 77¢ 86¢ $77 $86 +$8 (+11%)
Will the announcers say "Comeback” or “Come Back" during the Turkiye vs USA FIFA World Cup Match? Yes 81¢ 82¢ $81 $82 +$2 (+2%)
Will Anca Dragu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? No 90¢ 100¢ $70 $78 +$8 (+11%)
Will John Hickenlooper be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Colorado? Yes 87¢ 87¢ $75 $75 −$0 (-0%)
Will the announcers say "What a Save" during the Japan vs Sweden FIFA World Cup Match? Yes 35¢ 99¢ $26 $74 +$48 (+184%)
Will Dan Koh be the Democratic nominee for MA-06? Yes 41¢ 68¢ $41 $68 +$28 (+67%)
Will the Republican Party win the CO-03 House seat? Yes 1¢ 66¢ $1 $66 +$64 (+6450%)
Will the announcers say "Golden Boot" during the Japan vs Sweden FIFA World Cup Match? Yes 97¢ 100¢ $58 $60 +$2 (+3%)
Will the announcers say "Qatar" during the Japan vs Sweden FIFA World Cup Match? Yes 97¢ 99¢ $55 $57 +$1 (+3%)
Will the announcers say "Trump" during the Turkiye vs USA FIFA World Cup Match? No 85¢ 55¢ $85 $55 −$30 (-35%)
Will the announcers say "Trump" during the Japan vs Sweden FIFA World Cup Match? No 95¢ 53¢ $95 $53 −$42 (-44%)
Will the announcers say "Powerade" during the Japan vs Sweden FIFA World Cup Match? No 94¢ 52¢ $94 $52 −$42 (-44%)
Will Shannon Bird be the Democratic nominee for CO-08? No 92¢ 94¢ $49 $50 +$1 (+2%)
James Norton announced as next James Bond? No 54¢ 97¢ $27 $48 +$21 (+79%)
Will the announcers say "Captain" during the Turkiye vs USA FIFA World Cup Match? Yes 92¢ 92¢ $46 $46 +$0 (+0%)
Will Austin Sidwell be the Republican nominee for AL-01? No 94¢ 92¢ $38 $37 −$1 (-2%)
Will Beyoncé release an album in 2026? No 52¢ 35¢ $52 $35 −$17 (-32%)
Will Jay Feely be the Republican nominee for AZ-05? No 87¢ 95¢ $31 $33 +$3 (+9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 62 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the announcers say "Qatar" during the Ecuador vs Germany FIFA Wor Jun 26 $83 +$3 +3%
Will the announcers say "Handball" during the Ecuador vs Germany FIFA Jun 26 $17 +$1 +6%
Will the announcers say "Hattrick” or “Hat Trick" during the Ecuador v Jun 26 $68 +$4 +6%
Will the announcers say "Nutmeg” or “Meg" during the Ecuador vs German Jun 26 $91 +$9 +10%
Will the announcers say "Trump" during the Ecuador vs Germany FIFA Wor Jun 26 $41 +$1 +3%
Will the announcers say "Comeback” or “Come Back" during the Ecuador v Jun 25 $23 $0 +2%
Will the announcers say "Crossbar" during the Ecuador vs Germany FIFA Jun 25 $98 +$2 +2%
Will the announcers say "Messi" during the Ecuador vs Germany FIFA Wor Jun 25 $24 $0 +2%
Will the announcers say "Golden Boot" during the Canada vs Qatar FIFA Jun 25 $55 $0 +0%
Will the announcers say "Captain" during the Ecuador vs Germany FIFA W Jun 25 $17 −$16 -98%
Will Jeff Hurd be the Republican nominee for CO-03? Jun 25 $1 $0 -30%
Will Travis Grantham be the Republican nominee for AZ-05? Jun 25 $17 $0 -1%
Will Nate Blouin be the Democratic nominee for UT-01? Jun 24 $14 +$2 +13%
Will Ben McAdams be the Democratic nominee for UT-01? Jun 24 $114 +$24 +21%
Will Micah Lasher be the democratic nominee for NY-12? Jun 24 $24 +$38 +162%
Will Jay Byars be the Republican Nominee for SC-01? Jun 24 $98 +$2 +2%
Will Walter Kirkland be the Democratic nominee for MD-05? Jun 24 $39 +$1 +2%
Will Dave Sundberg be the Democratic nominee for MD-05? Jun 24 $15 $0 +2%
Will Ellis Colvin be the Democratic nominee for MD-05? Jun 24 $20 $0 +2%
Will "The Four Seasons: Season 2" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? Jun 23 $66 +$34 +51%
Will "Michael Jackson: The Verdict" be the #2 US Netflix show this wee Jun 23 $12 $0 +2%
Will "I Will Find You" be the top US Netflix show this week? Jun 23 $42 $0 -0%
Will "KPop Demon Hunters" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week? Jun 23 $14 +$1 +4%
Will "Maternal Instinct" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? Jun 23 $14 +$1 +7%
Will "Voicemails for Isabelle" be the top global Netflix movie this we Jun 23 $12 $0 +4%
Will "Office Romance" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? Jun 23 $5 $0 +3%
Will Robert Smullen be the Republican nominee for NY-21? Jun 22 $4 −$2 -46%
Will Cait Conley be the Democratic nominee for NY-17? Jun 22 $24 −$4 -17%
Will "Outlast: The Jungle" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? Jun 22 $14 −$3 -22%
Will Harry Dunn be the Democratic nominee for MD-05? Jun 22 $12 +$2 +19%
Will "Maternal Instinct" be the top global Netflix movie this week? Jun 22 $42 +$1 +1%
Will "Outlast: The Jungle" be the top US Netflix show this week? Jun 22 $65 +$22 +34%
Will Claire Valdez be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? Jun 21 $13 −$12 -97%
Will Darializa Avila Chevalier be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? Jun 21 $78 −$31 -40%
Will "Maternal Instinct" be the top US Netflix movie this week? Jun 19 $32 −$3 -9%
Will Matthew Dunlap be the Democratic nominee for ME-02? Jun 19 $5 +$61 +1110%
Will Beth Davidson be the Democratic nominee for NY-17? Jun 19 $11 −$3 -27%
Will the announcers say "Red Card" during the Mexico vs South Korea FI Jun 19 $113 +$51 +45%
Will Adriano Espaillat be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? Jun 19 $64 −$45 -72%
Will the announcers say "Adidas" during the Canada vs Qatar FIFA World Jun 18 $96 $0 -0%
Will the announcers say "Messi" during the Canada vs Qatar FIFA World Jun 18 $98 $0 +0%
Will the announcers say "Header" during the Canada vs Qatar FIFA World Jun 18 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the announcers say "Hattrick / Hat Trick" during the Canada vs Qa Jun 18 $98 $0 +0%
Will the announcers say "Powerade" during the Canada vs Qatar FIFA Wor Jun 18 $56 $0 -0%
Will Antonio Reynoso be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? Jun 18 $19 −$18 -97%
Will the announcers say "What A Save" during the England vs Croatia FI Jun 18 $97 +$3 +4%
Will Warsh say "Artificial Intelligence" or "AI" during June Press Con Jun 17 $64 +$34 +53%
Will Mike Collins be the Republican nominee for Senate in Georgia? Jun 17 $57 +$47 +82%
Will Barry Moore be the Republican nominee for Senate in Alabama? Jun 17 $42 +$58 +138%
Will Jared Hudson be the Republican nominee for Senate in Alabama? Jun 17 $21 +$26 +129%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the announcers say "Handball" during the Japan vs Sweden FIFA Wor SELL No 71¢ $4 7m
Will the announcers say "Handball" during the Japan vs Sweden FIFA Wor BUY No 71¢ $11 10m
Will the announcers say "Nutmeg” or “Meg" during the Japan vs Sweden F SELL No 81¢ $12 10m
Will the announcers say "Nutmeg” or “Meg" during the Japan vs Sweden F BUY No 81¢ $16 12m
Will the announcers say "Trump" during the Turkiye vs USA FIFA World C BUY No 84¢ $19 15m
Will the announcers say "Handball" during the Japan vs Sweden FIFA Wor BUY No 71¢ $32 16m
Will the announcers say "Qatar" during the Japan vs Sweden FIFA World BUY Yes 97¢ $55 18m
Will the announcers say "Record" during the Japan vs Sweden FIFA World BUY No 38¢ $4 22m
Will the announcers say "What a Save" during the Japan vs Sweden FIFA SELL Yes 97¢ $13 22m
Will the announcers say "Trump" during the Turkiye vs USA FIFA World C BUY No 85¢ $4 33m
Will the announcers say "Nutmeg” or “Meg" during the Japan vs Sweden F BUY No 69¢ $20 36m
Will the announcers say "Nutmeg” or “Meg" during the Japan vs Sweden F BUY No 69¢ $7 37m
Will the announcers say "Nutmeg” or “Meg" during the Japan vs Sweden F BUY No 69¢ $7 38m
Will the announcers say "Comeback” or “Come Back" during the Turkiye v BUY Yes 83¢ $9 38m
Will the announcers say "Comeback” or “Come Back" during the Turkiye v BUY Yes 83¢ $33 39m
Will the announcers say "Captain" during the Turkiye vs USA FIFA World BUY Yes 92¢ $46 48m
Will the announcers say "Trump" during the Japan vs Sweden FIFA World BUY No 96¢ $62 51m
Will the announcers say "Visa" during the Japan vs Sweden FIFA World C BUY Yes 97¢ $97 53m
Will the announcers say "Record" during the Japan vs Sweden FIFA World BUY No 38¢ $4 57m
Will the announcers say "What a Save" during the Japan vs Sweden FIFA BUY No 70¢ $9 59m
Will the announcers say "Comeback” or “Come Back" during the Japan vs BUY No 20¢ $3 1h
Will the announcers say "Nutmeg” or “Meg" during the Turkiye vs USA FI BUY Yes 55¢ $3 1h
Will the announcers say "Trump" during the Japan vs Sweden FIFA World BUY No 94¢ $33 1h
Will the announcers say "Golden Boot" during the Japan vs Sweden FIFA BUY Yes 98¢ $20 1h
Will the announcers say "Comeback” or “Come Back" during the Japan vs BUY No 20¢ $2 1h
Will the announcers say "Hattrick” or “Hat Trick" during the Japan vs BUY No 55¢ $22 1h
Will the announcers say "Comeback” or “Come Back" during the Japan vs BUY No 20¢ $2 1h
Will the announcers say "Golden Boot" during the Japan vs Sweden FIFA BUY Yes 97¢ $39 1h
Will the announcers say "Captain" during the Japan vs Sweden FIFA Worl BUY Yes 96¢ $96 1h
Will the announcers say "Nutmeg” or “Meg" during the Japan vs Sweden F BUY No 55¢ $6 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,462.06 · official $2,464.25 (match) · 1063 history records