Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:37:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
85 0x85eb…3742 sports 171 markets active 1h ago coverage 156d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$20 (-0%) realized −$20 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate6%10W / 160L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$59per market
Trades / day4.2pace
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 26% −$5
politics 22% −$3
other 19% −$3
crypto 9% −$6
world 7% −$1
culture 7% −$1
economics 7% −$1
tech 4% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 -0.2% -9.7% 50% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 3 -0.2% -9.7% 33% 0% -9.7%
all 170 -0.3% -9.8% 6% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.4% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.3% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 66% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.07 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

156d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized−$20
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses10 / 160
Open positions1
Markets (closed)170 / 171
History coverage156d
Avg bet$59
Trades / day4.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 170 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? No 97¢ 97¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 03 $41 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 26 $38 $0 +0%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 15 $30 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 03 $542 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 02 $72 $0 -0%
Will Rachel Reeves be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Mar 02 $1 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Mar 02 $167 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in March? Mar 02 $32 $0 -0%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Mar 01 $175 $0 -0%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Mar 01 $72 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 01 $32 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Feb 28 $184 $0 -0%
Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Feb 28 $177 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Feb 28 $47 $0 -0%
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 26 $32 $0 -0%
Will France win Eurovision 2026? Feb 26 $79 $0 -0%
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026? Feb 26 $32 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 26 $108 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Feb 26 $454 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Feb 26 $139 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Feb 26 $96 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 26 $97 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 26 $82 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me Feb 23 $129 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Feb 23 $180 −$1 -0%
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? Feb 23 $197 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 23 $82 $0 -0%
Will Xander Schauffele win the 2026 Masters tournament? Feb 23 $40 $0 +0%
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Men's French Open? Feb 23 $25 $0 -0%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Feb 23 $37 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Feb 23 $107 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 23 $15 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 23 $85 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 23 $179 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e Feb 23 $92 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 23 $84 $0 -0%
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Feb 23 $186 −$1 -1%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 23 $38 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Feb 23 $148 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 23 $39 $0 -0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 23 $91 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 23 $42 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 23 $142 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? Feb 23 $172 $0 -0%
Will the US next strike Iran on March 6, 2026 (ET)? Feb 23 $86 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 23 $115 $0 -0%
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? Feb 23 $46 $0 -0%
Will the US next strike Iran on March 20, 2026 (ET)? Feb 22 $40 $0 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Feb 22 $27 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 22 $64 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 97¢ $30 1h
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 95¢ $41 13d
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 95¢ $41 13d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $38 21d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $38 21d
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 97¢ $30 32d
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 97¢ $30 32d
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $39 106d
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 93¢ $3 106d
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 93¢ $3 106d
Will Rachel Reeves be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in SELL No 98¢ $1 106d
Will Rachel Reeves be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY No 98¢ $1 106d
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $39 106d
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? SELL No 97¢ $33 106d
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? BUY No 97¢ $33 106d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in March? SELL No 97¢ $32 106d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in March? BUY No 97¢ $32 106d
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $33 108d
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $34 108d
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 96¢ $42 108d
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 96¢ $42 108d
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? SELL No 96¢ $38 108d
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? BUY No 96¢ $38 108d
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $32 108d
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $32 108d
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $37 108d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 97¢ $6 109d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 97¢ $6 109d
Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? SELL No 96¢ $6 109d
Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? BUY No 97¢ $6 109d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.73 · official $29.73 (match) · 734 history records